Jun 11, 2011 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jun 11 12:48:11 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20110611 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20110611 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20110611 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20110611 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 111244
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0744 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011
   
   VALID 111300Z - 121200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INTO OZARK
   PLATEAU REGION...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES...
   
   ...HIGH PLAINS INTO OZARK PLATEAU REGION...
   
   MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS
   REGION WILL CONTINUE NEWD WITH AN ASSOCIATED CORRIDOR OF FORCING FOR
   ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. 
   AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
   WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER ERN WY AND SERN CO INTO ERN NM.  A
   RESULTANT ENHANCEMENT OF SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO
   CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S E OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS LEE TROUGH...WITH
   MID/UPPER 60S COMMON OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS OF OK/SRN KS INVOF
   SURFACE FRONT LIFTING NWD.  THIS MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE WITH A PLUME
   OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...YIELDING AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES
   RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO 1500-2500
   J/KG ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO OZARK PLATEAU REGION.
   
   DCVA IN ADVANCE OF ABOVE-MENTIONED IMPULSES COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE
   ALONG LEE TROUGH AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER
   SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS
   THE HIGH PLAINS.  FORECAST HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT VERTICALLY VEERING
   WIND PROFILES WITH THE STRONGEST DEEP WLY SHEAR /40-50 KT/
   DEVELOPING NEAR/N OF LEE CYCLONES OVER NERN WY/SERN MT/WRN SD AND
   E-CNTRL/SERN CO INTO WRN KS AND THE OK PNHDL.  AS SUCH...SUPERCELLS
   APPEAR LIKELY WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
   AND A FEW TORNADOES.  UPSCALE GROWTH OF THESE STORMS INTO ONE OR TWO
   MESOSCALE SYSTEMS IS PROBABLE TONIGHT WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS AND HAIL DEVELOPING EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
   
   ELSEWHERE...DIURNAL SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTERNOON ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT LIFTING NWD...AS WELL AS ANY RESIDUAL
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE TX/OK PNHDLS EWD INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU.
   THE STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN
   CONFINED TO THE WRN EXTENSION OF THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY OVER THE HIGH
   PLAINS WITH KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF GENERALLY MULTICELL
   STORMS FARTHER E.
   
   ...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES...
   
   MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
   ENEWD THIS PERIOD ACROSS SWRN ONTARIO INTO WRN QUEBEC WITH A
   CORRIDOR OF WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
   LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN THE
   NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW FROM NRN IL/IND INTO SWRN
   PARTS OF ONTARIO/QUEBEC WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD
   THROUGH THE OH VALLEY.  STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME
   DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE
   NWD/NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DE AND LOWER/MID
   HUDSON VALLEYS TODAY.
   
   CLOUD DEBRIS AND CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF
   DECAYING NOCTURNAL TSTM COMPLEXES FROM THE OH TO DE VALLEYS HAS CAST
   CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON SUBSEQUENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY.
   EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS LOCATIONS WEST AND NORTH OF
   THE OH RIVER WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM/DESTABILIZE OWING TO WIDESPREAD
   CLOUDS.  A COMPARATIVELY GREATER POTENTIAL AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
   /I.E. MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J PER KG/ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM
   ALONG AND E OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS NWD INTO CNTRL PARTS OF NY/PA
   WHERE STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING WILL OCCUR.
   
   FORCING AHEAD OF LEAD MCV OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND ITS ATTENDANT
   COLD POOL WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT TODAY
   WHERE THE AIR MASS CAN SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE.  REGION WILL
   GENERALLY REMAIN TO THE S OF THE STRONGER MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND
   FIELD ATTENDANT TO THE GREAT LAKES VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITH KINEMATIC
   ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
   
   ..MEAD/COHEN.. 06/11/2011
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z