Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 151949
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0249 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011
   
   VALID 152000Z - 161200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH
   AND TN VALLEY REGION...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA...
   
   ...TN VALLEY REGION...
   CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS TN AND THE NRN PORTIONS OF
   AL/MS/GA WITHIN WW 478.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP SOUTH
   OF THE WATCH AND MID AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE SUGGESTS THE AREA
   IS SUBSIDENT. THE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE WNWLY ALOFT
   OVERNIGHT...WITH STORMS MOVING MORE SEWD...AS SRN TAIL OF UPPER
   TROUGH MOVES INTO REGION. IT APPEARS IT MAY TAKE LONGER FOR STORMS
   TO REACH CENTRAL GA THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED ...SO PORTIONS OF
   SLIGHT RISK HAVE BEEN TRIMMED IN THIS REGION.
   
   ...IL/IND/FAR SERN MO...
   STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT STRETCHING
   FROM CENTRAL IL SWWD INTO FAR SERN MO. A NARROW WEDGE OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY AND 35-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT...AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH
   SEVERE WINDS/HAIL. A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR PARTS OF THIS
   AREA...BUT STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY REACH AS FAR EAST AS A
   HUF-SDF-LOZ LINE...WHERE MORNING CONVECTION AND LEFTOVER CLOUDS HAVE
   RESULTED IN A COOLER/MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   ...NRN TX/SRN OK...
   ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR STATIONARY FRONT
   LOCATED IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION...WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING
   WINDS AND HAIL...REFERENCE MD 1231. HOWEVER...THE 10% THUNDER LINE
   HAS BEEN REMOVED SOUTH OF THIS AREA DUE TO BUILDING HEIGHTS IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH A WARMING/DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   ..IMY.. 06/15/2011
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011/
   
   ...TN VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON...
   THE PRIMARY MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS PROGRESSING EWD OVER TN AND THE LOWER
   OH VALLEY.  IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...BANDS OF ELEVATED
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN THE ZONE OF WAA FROM MIDDLE TN INTO
   CENTRAL KY...AND THESE STORMS MAY POSE A MARGINAL HAIL RISK. 
   FARTHER W/SW...A WARM FRONT IS MOVING NEWD INTO MIDDLE TN AND
   CENTRAL/NRN AL.  THE HIGHEST BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND
   DEWPOINTS RESIDE ALONG AND W OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND SE OF A REMNANT
   WSW-ENE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NRN AR INTO NW TN.
   NEW STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES
   ACROSS WRN/MIDDLE TN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MLCAPE AOA 3000 J/G...AND
   THIS CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS THAT WILL
   MOVE EWD/SEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  50 KT WLY
   MIDLEVEL FLOW NOTED ON AREA VWPS/ WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CLUSTERS
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...WHILE BUOYANCY/LAPSE RATES
   WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL.
   
   ...FL THIS AFTERNOON...
   STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS FL...AND MODIFIED 12Z
   SOUNDINGS SUPPORT AFTERNOON MLCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG WITH LITTLE
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.  NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW ORGANIZED
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS TO PROPAGATE SWD/SWWD ALONG THE E COAST SEA
   BREEZE...AND INTO THE WARMER INTERIOR WHERE THE STRONGEST
   INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE.  ALSO...WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP ANVIL
   DEBRIS FROM SHADING THE STORM INFLOW REGIONS...WHICH WILL HELP
   MAINTAIN STRONG INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE STORMS THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON.  THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
   PRODUCE DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS...AS WELL AS MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL.
   
   ...IL/INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
   A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED EWD INTO ERN KY/TN...WITH
   A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER.  N OF THIS
   BOUNDARY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS LINGER IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...AND
   CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. 
   HOWEVER...THE INITIAL MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS ALREADY MOVING OVER
   IL...AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WILL NOT IMPACT THIS AREA UNTIL
   TONIGHT AND IN THE WAKE OF THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH
   IS NOW CROSSING THE MS RIVER.  ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...BUT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS IS IN QUESTION. 
   THUS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS AREA.
   
   ...RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX/OK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
   A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR OR JUST N OF THE RED RIVER
   THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVES E OF THE MS
   VALLEY.  SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG AND
   S OF THE FRONT...BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE FOCUS FOR STORM
   DEVELOPMENT OTHER THAN THE FRONT WHICH WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH
   TIME.  GIVEN THE WEAKENING VERTICAL SHEAR WITH TIME AND UNCERTAINTY
   REGARDING INITIATION...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW HAIL/WIND
   PROBABILITIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   
   ...INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND AND ERN NY THIS AFTERNOON...
   STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
   MID 50S WILL ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE THIS
   AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
   THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SWD AS MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKENS AND
   BACKS FROM NELY TO NLY.  MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW
   GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
   STRONGER STORMS.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

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