Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 160044
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0744 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011
   
   VALID 160100Z - 161200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH
   ATLANTIC COAST STATES...WEST NORTHWESTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE TN
   VALLEY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS A PORTION
   OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
   
   ...SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...
   A STRONG/SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS ONGOING AND ADVANCING
   INTO/THROUGH THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA PIEDMONT... ACCOMPANIED
   BY A VIGOROUS CONVECTIVELY GENERATED SURFACE COLD POOL.  MOMENTUM
   AND VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A BELT OF 30-40 KT WESTERLY 500
   MB FLOW...IN THE BASE OF A BROAD NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
   SLOWLY MIGRATING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ARE ENHANCING
   FORWARD PROPAGATION.  AND THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE
   PIEDMONT...BEFORE PERHAPS DIMINISHING AS CONVECTION BEGINS TO WEAKEN
   IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAKER LAPSE RATES/COOLER LOW-LEVELS NEAR COASTAL
   AREAS.
   
   FARTHER WEST...STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ON THE
   SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
   VALLEY/NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY
   PROGRESSES EASTWARD...WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELDS ARE
   BEGINNING TO WEAKEN.  BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES... INCLUDING A
   LINGERING VERY WARM AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER... MAY REMAIN
   FAVORABLE FOR DOWNBURSTS AND SOUTHEASTWARD SURGING COLD POOLS INTO
   THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME.
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...
   SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
   KANSAS.  ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN SHORTLY...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
   ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...ROOTED WITHIN STRONGER
   LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...ON THE EDGE OF VERY WARM AND
   CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ADVECTING OFF THE ROCKIES/PLATEAU
   REGION.  MOISTURE LEVELS ARE INITIALLY SOMEWHAT LOW...HOWEVER THIS
   COULD INCREASE WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET.  REGARDLESS...IN
   THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY
   MID-LEVEL FLOW...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
   BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/16/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z