Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 260600
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL
   PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST TO THE TN VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN
   HALF OF THE CONUS TO THE NORTH OF AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
   OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. WITHIN THIS REGIME...AN UPPER TROUGH
   CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
   EASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...WHILE A SECONDARY/BASAL
   PORTION OF THIS TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND GRADUALLY TAKES ON A MORE
   NEUTRAL TILT BY THIS EVENING.
   
   ...NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/MO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
   AN INCREASINGLY MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS...CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE 60S
   TO LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY
   NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/MO VALLEY INTO THIS
   AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS TODAY...THIS MOISTURE INFLUX WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF A
   SHARPENING/NORTHWARD-SHIFTING WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS AND LOWER/MIDDLE MO VALLEY...AND TO THE EAST OF AN
   EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
   
   BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...TIED TO AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE SCENARIO
   /SYNOPSIS/...AMPLE HEIGHT FALLS/PERHAPS A LEAD MID LEVEL IMPULSE ARE
   LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO APPRECIABLE DEEP CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT...INITIALLY FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN WY/SOUTHEAST
   MT...AREAS NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
   ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SD/SOUTHEAST ND INTO WESTERN MN.
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING IN VICINITY
   OF THE WARM FRONT AND/OR RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM EARLY MORNING
   CONVECTION.
   
   CONSIDERABLY STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES...ATTENDANT TO
   THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH...WILL
   COINCIDE WITH A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM/MOIST SECTOR THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY/MID EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   SD/NEB.
   
   ASIDE FROM A PERSISTENT SEVERE HAIL THREAT ACROSS THE MIDWEST
   TONIGHT...ONE OR MORE FORWARD PROPAGATING QUASI-LINEAR
   CLUSTERS/CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS SEEM LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
   PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THUS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A
   CORRIDOR OF POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE MO VALLEY INCLUDING EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA/NORTHERN
   MO.
   
   ...TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES...
   EXACT DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN...BUT THE REMNANTS OF AN EARLY DAY MCS
   MAY PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY AND/OR
   SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS VICINITY. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
   CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED BOUTS OF DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL
   POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
   
   ..GUYER/LEITMAN.. 06/26/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z