Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 290559
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ID/MT...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
   AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
   CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER QUEBEC AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND
   TODAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY CLEARS MUCH OF THE
   NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD EARLY TODAY WHILE OTHERWISE SAGGING
   SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AS UPPER RIDGING
   BECOMES MORE PROMINENT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES...A SPLIT UPPER
   FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH A COMPACT
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SPREADING FROM CA TO THE
   SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
   
   ...MT/ID...
   UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY BREAK DOWN WITH RELATIVELY
   STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AMID PHASING WESTERLIES/SPLIT FLOW
   OVER THE REGION. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INITIALLY INCREASE ACROSS
   WESTERN/CENTRAL/NORTHERN ID INTO WESTERN MT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
   SUBSEQUENT INCREASE/EAST-NORTHEASTWARD SPREAD INTO NORTHERN MT BY
   THIS EVENING. GIVEN ADEQUATE PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A STRONGLY
   SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...RELATIVELY ORGANIZED/HIGH BASED STORMS ARE
   LIKELY...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL
   ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
   
   ...UT/WY/WESTERN CO...
   FARTHER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...A SOMEWHAT SEPARATE REGION OF
   STRONG/SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   UT INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN WY AND WESTERN CO AHEAD OF THE GREAT BASIN
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. GIVEN INCREASING LOW/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/MODEST
   PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT...THE STRONGEST STORMS ESPECIALLY
   THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG
   DOWNDRAFTS/GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.
   
   ...SOUTHEAST STATES/LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...
   DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND ESPECIALLY
   AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE
   NATURE OF CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...SEVERE COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO
   GENERALLY BE MORE ISOLATED/MARGINAL IN NATURE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
   THE REGION. THAT SAID...DOWNBURSTS CAPABLE OF EPISODIC WIND
   DAMAGE/PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
   
   ...UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...
   AT LEAST ISOLATED ELEVATED TSTMS MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT /MAINLY AFTER
   06Z/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI AND PERHAPS EASTERN
   IA. THIS WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF A PRONOUNCED NORTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING
   ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALOFT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET/ASSOCIATED ELEVATED
   MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME NOCTURNALLY INCREASES. THE PROXIMITY OF
   THE UPPER RIDGE/STRENGTH OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALOFT PROVIDE A
   MEASURE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LIKELIHOOD/EXTENT OF
   SEVERE...BUT IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS WILL
   DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE
   HAIL.
   
   ...MAINE...
   A FEW STRONG TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN
   WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD
   COVER/PRECIPITATION IN VICINITY OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL
   ZONE...THE OVERALL SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
   SUCH THAT SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..GUYER/LEITMAN.. 06/29/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z