Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 010546
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1246 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2011
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MN/LS TO CENTRAL/ERN NEB...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DOMINANT UPPER AIR FEATURE OVER MOST OF CONUS WILL BE STG
   RIDGING...EXTENDING FROM SRN PLAINS NEWD ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES
   AND WWD OVER SRN CA.  HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO RISE ACROSS MUCH OF GREAT
   BASIN...YIELDING NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN WAKE OF STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   AND EMBEDDED/SMALL 500-MB CYCLONE NOW MOVING ENEWD OVER NRN CO AND
   SRN WY.  THIS PERTURBATION WILL DEAMPLIFY TO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH BY
   EARLY PERIOD...EJECTING NEWD ACROSS WRN/NRN MN AROUND 2/00Z.  AS
   THIS OCCURS...NRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
   CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SERN BC -- WILL MOVE EWD WITH SOME HEIGHT FALLS
   EXTENDING JUST S OF CANADIAN BORDER.
   
   AT SFC...COLD FRONT NOW OVER NWRN MN AND ERN ND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
   EWD TO WRN LS...SERN/S-CENTRAL MN...ERN/SRN NEB...WRN KS AND ERN CO
   BY 2/00Z.  FRONT THEN SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY OVER CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS...WHILE MOVING EWD TO UPPER MI...ERN IA AND CENTRAL KS
   BY END OF PERIOD.  WARM FRONTAL ZONE -- NOW OVER WI AND INDIANA/IL
   BORDER REGION...SHOULD MOVE ENEWD TO WRN OH...LOWER MI AND NRN
   WI/WRN UPPER MI AREA BY 2/00Z...THEN OVER LS/LH BY END OF PERIOD.
   
   ...MN/LS TO CENTRAL/ERN NEB...
   SCATTERED-NUMEROUS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSTMS ARE FCST INVOF SFC
   COLD FRONT...WITH MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
   POSSIBLE EWD ALONG WARM FRONT AND/OR LS LAKE BREEZE.  FAVORABLE
   JUXTAPOSING FACTORS WILL INCLUDE STG PRE-STORM/PREFRONTAL SFC
   DIABATIC HEATING...RICH WARM-SECTOR MOISTURE WITH SFC DEW POINTS 70S
   F AND 1.4-1.8 INCH PW...STEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON NERN
   RIM OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER REGIME...AND 30-40 KT
   DEEP-LAYER/EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.  MLCAPE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD
   FRONT MAY SURPASS 5000 J/KG...WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE HELPING TO
   OVERCOME DIABATICALLY WEAKENED MLCINH.  WITH SWLY PREFRONTAL WINDS
   AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE THAT...HODOGRAPH SIZE SHOULD BE
   RATHER LIMITED IN MOST AREAS...AND MEAN WINDS WILL BE ALIGNED NEARLY
   PARALLEL TO FRONT.  IN FACT...SOME ANAFRONTAL/POST-FRONTAL
   CONVECTION ALSO IS POSSIBLE OVER MN/SD/NEB...WHICH MAY HAVE ACCESS
   TO MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WHILE PARCELS STILL ARE SFC-BASED.
   
   ISOLATED VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN STRENGTH
   OF BUOYANCY AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
   ALONG EITHER WARM FRONT/LAKE BREEZE OR NEAR SFC LOW. 
   HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING COVERAGE/DURATION OF FAVORABLE
   CONVECTIVE MODE PRECLUDES AOA 10% SIG-HAIL PROBABILITY LINE ATTM.
   
   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS SERN
   WY...NEB PANHANDLE AND/OR NERN CO...IN ZONE OF ELY/UPSLOPE FLOW
   COMPONENT N OF SFC FRONT.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 40-50
   KT...ALONG SRN RIM OF STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL WLYS...MAY BE
   SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR MODES AND
   ATTENDANT WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL.  COVERAGE CONCERNS PRECLUDE
   CATEGORICAL-LEVEL PROBABILITIES ATTM.
   
   ...LH/LE AND ADJOINING STATES...
   AN EPISODE OR TWO OF TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG OR E OF SFC WARM
   FRONT...FIRST DURING EARLY PERIOD MOVING SSEWD FROM LM AREA...SECOND
   PRIMARILY DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD AND POTENTIALLY GREATER IN
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY.  MAIN CONCERN WITH FIRST EPISODE WOULD BE
   ISOLATED HAIL...WHILE LARGER BUOYANCY AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
   CONTENT FARTHER E WILL SUPPORT RISK OF BOTH WIND AND HAIL WITH TSTMS
   MOVING SEWD TO SSEWD ACROSS REGION.  SECOND ROUND MAY DEVELOP OVER
   LOWER MI OR SRN ONT...LOOSELY ANALOGOUS TO SRN LM ACTIVITY FROM
   PRIOR DAY AS RELATED LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME AND WIND PROFILES RELOCATE
   EWD TO THIS REGION.  ATTM...TIMING/COVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE
   CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK...HOWEVER CHANNEL OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED SVR
   THREAT MAY BECOME BETTER EVIDENT WITH TIME.
   
   ...SERN CONUS...
   AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION FCST TO DESTABILIZE THROUGHOUT LATE
   MORNING...MIDDAY AND EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...AS INTENSE SFC HEATING
   COMBINES WITH DEW POINTS 70S F TO YIELD MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG. 
   INITIATION SHOULD BE FOCUSED AT FIRST BY SEA BREEZES AND
   RESIDUAL/SUBTLE BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS DAY...THEN ALONG THEIR
   INTERSECTIONS WITH OUTFLOWS AS ACTIVITY MOVES GENERALLY SWWD. 
   SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED...PRIMARILY
   MULTICELLULAR IN CHARACTER.  SUBCLOUD LAYER MAY BECOME WELL-MIXED
   ENOUGH TO ENHANCE LOCAL WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL FROM MORE INTENSE
   DOWNDRAFTS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO MAY OCCUR.  THREAT SHOULD WANE
   AFTER 00Z DUE TO COMBINED STABILIZING EFFECTS OF DIABATIC SFC
   COOLING AND SPREADING AGGREGATE COVERAGE OF OUTFLOW AIR.
   
   ..EDWARDS/SMITH.. 07/01/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z