Jul 1, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jul 1 16:06:08 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20110701 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20110701 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20110701 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20110701 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.		 
   SPC AC 011602
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1102 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2011
   
   VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
   THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...
   
   ...SD/NEB INTO MN/WI/UPR MI...
   MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A COMPACT AND STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   OVER SD/NEB.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
   THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. 
   WIDESPREAD 70S DEWPOINTS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MN/IA WHERE FULL
   SUNSHINE WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3500 J/KG.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
   OVER CENTRAL SD.  THESE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SEVERE AND
   TRACK ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO MN/IA/WI.  MORNING SOUNDINGS
   SHOWED WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 700-850MB LAYER...WHICH MAY LIMIT
   THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. 
   NEVERTHELESS...STRONG HEATING AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
   TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN SURFACE-BASED STORMS
   INCLUDING BOW STRUCTURES TRACKING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR THROUGH THE
   EVENING.  LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
   
   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
   FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WY AND CENTRAL CO.  THESE STORMS
   WILL SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE EVENING.  THIS
   REGION WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
   SD/NEB...WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED. 
   NEVERTHELESS...A SUPERCELL OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS
   REGION.  LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
   
   ...CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION...
   THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE MS VALLEY TODAY...WITH
   RELATIVELY WEAK NORTHERLY MID LEVEL WINDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
   THE OH/TN VALLEYS.  SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE TODAY FROM LOWER MI INTO PARTS OF IL/IND/OH WITH A FEW
   STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. 
   LIMITED FORCING MECHANISMS AND MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT
   THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ...SOUTHEAST STATES...
   RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS
   AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  DESPITE WEAK FLOW
   ALOFT...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE CAPE VALUES WILL
   PROMOTE A RISK OF ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL. 
   REFER TO MCD NUMBER 1460 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
   
   ..HART/ROGERS.. 07/01/2011
   
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