Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 241608
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1108 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011
   
   VALID 241630Z - 251200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL RETROGRADE FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER
   MS VALLEY TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE D1 PERIOD IN
   RESPONSE TO FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 
   ASSOCIATED BELT OF HIGH MOMENTUM ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
   NRN TIER OF STATES...DISPLACED TO THE N OF DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC
   ZONE WHICH WILL PERSIST FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEST TO MID
   ATLANTIC COAST.  AS SUCH...THE PROSPECT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
   APPEARS MINIMAL...THOUGH ISOLATED STRONG-MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
   ARE PROBABLE ALONG EXISTING SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.
   
   ...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEST TO MID ATLANTIC COAST...
   
   MID-MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDING
   FROM W-CNTRL KS NEWD TO LOW PRESSURE SW OF CNK...THEN CONTINUING
   NEWD THROUGH CNTRL IA AND W-CNTRL WI.  THE FRONT THEN TURNS MORE
   ESEWD THROUGH CNTRL WI/LOWER MI...EVENTUALLY LINKING WITH LOW
   PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  PRECEDING THIS FRONT SEVERAL
   CLUSTERS OF TSTMS/MCSS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE OZARKS INTO NRN
   IL/NWRN IND...EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS
   IN THE LOW/MID 70S.  POCKETS OF STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED
   WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BOOST AFTERNOON MLCAPE TO
   1500-3000 J/KG WITH DIURNAL TSTMS BECOMING FOCUSED ALONG THE
   SYNOPTIC FRONT...AS WELL AS ACTIVE COLD POOLS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING STORMS.
   
   AS MENTIONED ABOVE...REGION WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE S OF
   STRONGER ZONAL FLOW IN THE MIDLEVELS...RESULTING IN GENERALLY
   LESSER-ORGANIZED STORM MODES.  BUT...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
   INSTABILITY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL WILL STILL
   BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ...NRN PLAINS...
   
   WEAK SURFACE FRONT/PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CNTRL MANITOBA
   SWWD TO LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN ND WILL SHIFT EWD TODAY IN WAKE OF
   VIGOROUS VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS ONTARIO. 
   WHILE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
   SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS /I.E.
   PW VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH/ COUPLED WITH POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION.  ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT/TROUGH
   WITHIN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 40-50 KT OF DEEP
   NWLY SHEAR.  HOWEVER...THE TENDENCY FOR LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT RISES AND
   THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
   ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE.
   
   ...SERN AZ...
   
   12Z TUS SOUNDING SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH
   PW VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES.  WWD-MOVING VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER
   S-CNTRL NM COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER
   SCATTERED DIURNAL TSTMS WITH ACTIVITY MOVING SWWD WITHIN 20-25 KT
   STEERING FLOW.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OWING
   LARGELY TO WATER-LOADING EFFECTS.  HOWEVER...THE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION AND
   ASSOCIATED GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..MEAD/GARNER.. 07/24/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z