Jul 26, 2011 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jul 26 01:02:10 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20110726 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20110726 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20110726 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20110726 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 260057
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0757 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2011
   
   VALID 260100Z - 261200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES
   AND NRN PLAINS...
   
   ...NRN PLAINS...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
   ROCKIES WITH RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTING A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
   MOVING EWD ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
   AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ALONG
   A COLD FRONT IN NW SD EXTENDING SWD INTO NW NEB ALONG THE WRN EDGE
   OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP IN RAPID CITY
   HAS ABOUT 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SUGGESTING THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
   CONTINUE AS THE STORMS MOVE ESEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS THIS
   EVENING. MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
   EXTENDS FROM ERN WY EWD ACROSS SRN SD WHERE 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE
   RATES EXCEED 8.0 C/KM IN A FEW AREAS. AS THE STORMS MOVE ESEWD DOWN
   THIS CORRIDOR...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE
   CORES. THE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ORGANIZED INTO TWO LINES WITH THE
   ONE EAST OF RAPID CITY EXHIBITING A BOWING STRUCTURE. THIS STORM
   MODE SHOULD FAVOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT ACROSS SRN SD AND FAR NRN NEB
   THIS EVENING.
   
   FURTHER TO THE EAST...SEVERAL ISOLATED CELLS ARE ONGOING NEAR SIOUX
   FALLS SD WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG
   RANGE. THE DISCRETE NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AND 40 KT OF 0-6 KM
   SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
   THE STORMS MOVE SSEWD INTO FAR NW IA.
   
   ...NRN ROCKIES...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN
   ROCKIES AHEAD OF A PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN NW AND CNTRL MT LOCATED ALONG A MOIST
   AXIS WHERE POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ARE ANALYZED. ALTHOUGH
   SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY AROUND 50 F ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND WRN
   MT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING SHOW 40 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT
   AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL EARLY
   THIS EVENING.
   
   ...ARKLATEX/GULF COAST STATES/CAROLINAS/ERN VA...
   NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING FROM THE ARKLATEX EWD ACROSS THE
   NRN GULF COAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS ALONG A ILL-DEFINED
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MODERATE
   INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 2500
   J/KG IN THE MS VALLEY TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR IS GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTING THE
   SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN UNORGANIZED THIS EVENING.
   HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP SUGGESTING THE MORE
   INTENSE PULSE STORMS MAY CONTAIN A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT FOR
   ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/26/2011
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z