Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 300541
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1241 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011
   
   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO THE
   UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF EARLY
   SATURDAY MORNING WILL REACH SWRN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
   ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ADVANCING INTO NRN MN EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH
   CNTRL SD BY EARLY EVENING. AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
   THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY.  
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...
   
   SWLY LLJ WILL PERSIST FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
   WITHIN ZONE OF MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEWD ADVECTION OF MID TO
   UPPER 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY
   BENEATH EWD ADVECTING EML PLUME. A FEW STORMS WILL PROBABLY STILL BE
   ONGOING WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS NERN ND INTO NWRN MN EARLY
   SATURDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD DURING THE DAY ALLOWING
   THE WARM SECTOR FARTHER SOUTH TO DESTABILIZE AS SURFACE HEATING
   COMMENCES. MLCAPE FROM 3000-4000 J/KG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN
   PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN AND WRN WI. 
   
   LIKELIHOOD OF CAP ASSOCIATED WITH EML AND TENDENCY FOR STRONGER
   FORCING TO REMAIN NORTH OF U.S. BORDER COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT STORM
   COVERAGE IN SWRN PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. STORMS WILL MOST
   LIKELY REDEVELOP NE OF THE WARMER EML OVER NRN MN ALONG REMNANT
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE AND ALONG COLD
   FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT EWD AND SEWD INTO WI AND
   CNTRL/SRN MN. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN ALONG SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER
   WLYS WITH 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FAVORING SUPERCELLS AND A FEW
   BOWING SEGMENTS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE
   THE MAIN THREATS...BUT LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND THE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED
   TORNADOES...PRIMARILY ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL MN INTO WRN WI.
   
   ..DIAL/ROGERS.. 07/30/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z