Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 070549
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1249 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2011
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
   SEWD INTO MO...AND THEN EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
   REGION...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER
   GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS PROGGED TO DIG
   WEAKLY ESEWD WITH TIME.  AS IT DOES...WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SHIFT
   EWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/SEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH TIME...WHILE
   LAGGING NWWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK UPPER TROUGHING E OF THE ROCKIES WILL
   BE CONTRIBUTORS TO THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS PERIOD.
   
   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD INTO MO...
   ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING
   EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE PROGGED TO
   SHARPEN THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD ACROSS KS AND
   INTO THE OZARKS.  
   
   WITH HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...EXPECT STORMS TO REDEVELOP -- LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGH
   PLAINS INITIALLY AND THEN SEWD ALONG THE FRONT AS STORMS SHIFT OFF
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE SEWD INTO KS AND VICINITY.  WITH 40 KT
   WLYS ALOFT ATOP LOW-LEVEL SELYS JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE
   FRONT...SHEAR WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS.  ALONG WITH HAIL
   POTENTIAL...STORMS SHIFTING QUICKLY SEWD WILL LIKELY BE CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS -- ESPECIALLY IF ONE OR MORE MCS/S EVOLVE
   WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION.
   
   DURING THE EVENING...SOME DIURNAL INCREASE IN SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY
   ASSIST IN MAINTAINING ROBUST CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE
   DIURNAL EFFECTS MITIGATE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AREA...
   WHILE ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE OH
   VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION COMPLICATES THE FORECAST...IT
   APPEARS THAT STORMS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS
   REGION AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL WAVE OF
   STORMS OCCURS.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT BY LATE AFTERNOON...STORMS
   SHOULD BE GROWING UPSCALE INTO AN MCS...CROSSING LOWER
   MI/IL/INDIANA/OH BEFORE WEAKENING ALONG THE W SLOPES OF THE
   APPALACHIANS DURING THE EVENING.
   
   UNTIL THEN...ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT INCREASING TO AROUND
   40 KT AT H5 WILL SUPPORT PROGRESSIVE STORMS...WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT
   FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO HAIL.
   
   ..GOSS/GRAMS.. 08/07/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z