Aug 14, 2011 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Aug 14 00:40:12 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20110814 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20110814 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20110814 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20110814 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 140035
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0735 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011
   
   VALID 140100Z - 141200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN IND AND WRN OH...
   
   ...MIDWEST/OH VLY...
   STRONG PV-ANOMALY OVER IL WILL PROGRESS ESE INTO THE UPR OH VLY/LWR
   GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SUNDAY.  TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A SEGMENTED
   COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ESE AROUND 35 KTS THROUGH CNTRL IND
   AT 0030Z.  A NARROW WEDGE OF UNTOUCHED BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED
   BY MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG EXISTS AHEAD OF THE BAND OF STORMS AND TO
   THE S OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS EXTREME NW OH/NE IND. 
   WOLCOTT IND PROFILER SHOWS A DEEP WLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REGIME
   INDICATIVE OF PRIMARILY BOW ECHO STORM MODE.  ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST
   ACROSS CNTRL IND AND PERHAPS INTO WCNTRL/SWRN OH THROUGH LATE
   EVENING WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS/MRGLLY SVR HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. 
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
   AS THEY APPROACH THE OH BORDER.  THIS SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AS
   ANY INDUCED SLY/SELY LLVL INFLOW WILL BE EMANATING FROM THE NRN EDGE
   OF A RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS OVER THE OH VLY.
   
   TO THE SE IN THE KY/WV COALFIELDS...ISOLD STORMS...THRIVING
   DOWNSTREAM FROM A LEAD SUB-SYNOPTIC FEATURE...MAY PRODUCE
   GUSTY/PERHAPS DMGG WIND GUSTS THROUGH MID-EVENING.  HERE...THE START
   OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND COMPARATIVELY WEAKER BUOYANCY WILL LIMIT
   THE SVR THREATS.
   
   ..RACY.. 08/14/2011
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z