Aug 18, 2011 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |
Updated: Thu Aug 18 00:43:08 UTC 2011 | |
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic |
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
SPC AC 180039 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0739 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SD/NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN CO... ...SD/NEB... SCATTERED SUPERCELL ACTIVITY THAT HAS EVOLVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCNTRL SD INTO CHERRY COUNTY NEB HAS STRUGGLED TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A SWD PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT ATOP LLJ THAT SHOULD INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST RADAR DATA STRONGLY SUGGESTS SEVERAL SEVERE UPDRAFTS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL ACROSS MELLETTE COUNTY SD AND OVER SRN CHERRY/NRN HOOKER COUNTY NEB. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND UPDRAFTS GRADUALLY WEAKEN. ...SERN CO... SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS A SMALL PART OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS OVER SERN CO...PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS OF THE WRN OK PANHANDLE BY 04-05Z. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ACROSS PUEBLO/OTERO/KIOWA COUNTIES AND ARE SURGING SEWD AT ROUGHLY 25KT. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND THE 01Z OUTLOOK WILL REFLECT THIS SECONDARY SEVERE THREAT WITHIN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIME. REF LATEST SWOMCD FOR FURTHER INFORMATION (HTTP://WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/MD/MD1997.HTML) ..DARROW.. 08/18/2011 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z