Aug 18, 2011 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Aug 18 00:43:08 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20110818 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20110818 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20110818 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20110818 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 180039
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0739 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011
   
   VALID 180100Z - 181200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SD/NEB...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN CO...
   
   ...SD/NEB...
   
   SCATTERED SUPERCELL ACTIVITY THAT HAS EVOLVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   SCNTRL SD INTO CHERRY COUNTY NEB HAS STRUGGLED TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT
   MOVE EAST THIS EVENING.  CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A SWD
   PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT ATOP LLJ THAT SHOULD INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS.  LATEST RADAR DATA STRONGLY SUGGESTS SEVERAL SEVERE
   UPDRAFTS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL ACROSS MELLETTE COUNTY SD AND OVER SRN
   CHERRY/NRN HOOKER COUNTY NEB.  SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND UPDRAFTS
   GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
   
   ...SERN CO...
   
   SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS A SMALL PART OF THE
   CNTRL HIGH PLAINS OVER SERN CO...PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS OF THE WRN OK
   PANHANDLE BY 04-05Z.  TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ACROSS
   PUEBLO/OTERO/KIOWA COUNTIES AND ARE SURGING SEWD AT ROUGHLY 25KT. 
   THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND THE 01Z OUTLOOK
   WILL REFLECT THIS SECONDARY SEVERE THREAT WITHIN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
   REGIME.  REF LATEST SWOMCD FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
   (HTTP://WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/MD/MD1997.HTML)
   
   ..DARROW.. 08/18/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z