Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 040052
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0752 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011
   
   VALID 040100Z - 041200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
   COAST...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
   REGION...
   
   ...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
   TROPICAL STORM LEE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT GENERALLY NORTHWARD
   NEAR THE SOUTHERN LA COAST...REFERENCE NHC FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST
   DETAILS/FORECAST. WEAK INLAND BUOYANCY /ESPECIALLY WITH LOSS OF
   DIURNAL HEATING/ WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE APPRECIABLE
   TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR/SRH WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2
   KM...AS PER WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM LIX/DGX/MOB AND THE 00Z SLIDELL
   OBSERVED SOUNDING...WILL CONTINUE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH
   ANY SEMI-SUSTAINED LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS.
   
   ...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...
   SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE IN AN OUTFLOW-AUGMENTED
   SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED EFFECTIVE FRONTAL CORRIDOR ACROSS THE
   MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...INCLUDING DOWNSTATE IL TO INDIANA/SOUTHEAST
   LOWER MI AND OH. BOUTS OF DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL
   REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO MID/LATE EVENING...BUT THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
   HEATING/EVENTUAL CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND THE SOUTHEASTWARD
   PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A MORE ISOLATED/MARGINAL
   THREAT WITH TIME.
   
   ..GUYER.. 09/04/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z