Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 050600
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2011
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
   STATES...
   
   ...GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES...
   CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE /REFERENCE NHC FORECASTS FOR THE
   LATEST INFORMATION/ IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSIVE /ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT/
   AS IT UNDERGOES AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN
   ENHANCED SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD MAY ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN TO A
   DEGREE AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL/INTERACTS WITH THE EASTERN CONUS
   LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF 50+ KT WINDS WITHIN THE
   LOWEST 1-2 KM /EG 850 MB/ TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
   HALF OF AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE INTO GA...AND PERHAPS SC LATER
   TONIGHT.
   
   ASIDE FROM A DEGREE OF SPREAD REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT
   AND UNCERTAIN ACCELERATION OF LEE REMNANTS...THE SPECIFIC DEGREE OF
   DESTABILIZATION INLAND REMAINS A KEY UNCERTAINTY. BUT EVEN MODEST
   DESTABILIZATION /ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS/ SHOULD BOOST
   TORNADO POTENTIAL WITHIN A HEIGHTENED SHEAR/SRH AND MOISTURE-RICH
   ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY...WITH DRY AIR BECOMING A BIT MORE
   PREVALENT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LEE EARLY IN THE
   OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT /PER LATEST
   GUIDANCE/ COULD EMERGE/SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY AFTERNOON...OR
   MORE CERTAINLY THE EVENING. THIS COULD BE A FACTOR FOR A MORE
   CONSEQUENTIAL DESTABILIZATION ESPECIALLY IF IT INDEED BEGINS TO
   OVERSPREAD TO THE LEE-REMNANT EASTERLY ENVELOPE MOIST AXIS PRE-DARK.
   WHILE THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
   TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST OF REMNANT LEE...AN INTERACTION WILL CONTINUE
   TO OCCUR WITH THE SOUTHWARD-SAGGING SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED
   FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF AL/MS TO THE SOUTHERN
   APPALACHIANS. THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL SERVE AS THE NORTHWARD
   DEMARCATION OF TORNADO POTENTIAL...BUT COULD BECOME A QUASI-FOCUS
   FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL /ASIDE FROM THE BROAD WARM SECTOR/ SHOULD
   SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCUR ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE MORE
   PERSISTENT/CONCENTRATED RAIN-COOLED AIR.
   
   OVERALL...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
   OF TORNADOES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   AL/FL PANHANDLE/GA.
   
   ...MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...
   PRIMARY LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
   LAG /TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST/ THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS
   EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS/TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
   TONIGHT. GIVEN THIS ANA-TYPE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO...AND ESPECIALLY
   WITH ONGOING CONVECTION/PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...CONSEQUENTIAL
   DESTABILIZATION SEEMS UNLIKELY LATER TODAY. WHILE THE PATTERN
   APPEARS MOST CONDUCIVE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...POTENTIAL WILL
   EXIST FOR A FEW POCKETS OF MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
   NEAR THE EFFECTIVE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW STRONGER/PERHAPS
   SEVERE STORMS COULD YIELD GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL.
   
   ..GUYER/HURLBUT.. 09/05/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z