| Categorical Graphic |
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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
SPC AC 110048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2011 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...E CENTRAL AND SERN AZ AND ADJACENT WRN NM... STORM GROWTH/EXPANSION CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF AZ AND NM WHERE GENERALLY 500 TO 1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED. WHILE SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION...DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST CONTINUES TO ALLOW FAVORABLE VENTING OF UPDRAFT MASS -- AND THUS A FEW STRONGER CELLS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE...BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AIDED BY RELATIVELY DRY/DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER. ...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SRN CA... STORMS ARE ONGOING N OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS INLAND CENTRAL AND SRN CA WHERE GENERALLY 500 TO 1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED. WEAK SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE...BUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER CELL COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS -- AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE EFFECTS WITHIN THE DEEP MIXED LAYER -- OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..GOSS.. 09/11/2011 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z