Sep 14, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Sep 14 16:24:06 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20110914 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20110914 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20110914 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20110914 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.		 
   SPC AC 141620
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2011
   
   VALID 141630Z - 151200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...NORTHEAST STATES...
   CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE IN
   THIS UPDATE.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN NEW
   ENGLAND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
   MODERATE WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL POSE SOME RISK OF GUSTY WINDS
   AND HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
   LOW.
   
   ...MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...
   WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING THIS
   MORNING AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED COMMA-CLOUD OVER SOUTHWEST MO. 
   ENHANCED LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN VICINITY OF THE FEATURE WOULD
   SUGGEST A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY OVER PARTS OF
   AR/WEST TN/NORTHERN MS.  HOWEVER...EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WILL
   GREATLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION.  THEREFORE
   WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES.
   
   ...SOUTHWEST STATES...
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
   TONIGHT AS WEAK UPPER LOW MIGRATES SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO FOUR-CORNERS
   REGION.  RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP
   LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL POSE SOME RISK OF GUSTY WINDS IN
   STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ..HART/SMITH.. 09/14/2011
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z