Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 150521
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1221 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2011
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SWRN U.S...
   
   LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY
   ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES THURSDAY.  LATE EVENING WV IMAGERY
   CLEARLY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NRN AZ. 
   THIS FEATURE WILL SHEAR EWD INTO NRN NM BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE
   STRONGEST BELT OF MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO EXTEND ALONG THE
   U.S./MEXICAN BORDER INTO OK.  EAST OF THE ROCKIES...ACROSS THE SRN
   PLAINS...A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL ENSURE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER
   CONDITIONS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS ERN NM/WEST TX.  AS A
   RESULT...IT APPEARS STRONGEST HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS AZ INTO SWRN
   NM AND ALONG THE RIO GRAND INTO WEST TX.  STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS
   THIS REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN AID IN ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS
   PWAT VALUES SHOULD HOLD AOA ONE INCH.  FOR THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN
   5% PROBABILITIES FOR THE THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WINDS/HAIL...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
   
   ...DELMARVA...
   
   STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE NERN U.S. THURSDAY
   WITH SRN FRINGE OF ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BRUSH
   THE DELMARVA REGION.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SFC FRONT WILL
   MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST OF NJ AROUND 18Z...BUT TRAIL SWWD
   INTO CNTRL VA NEAR PEAK HEATING.  BASED ON THIS FRONTAL POSITION AND
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS...LATEST THINKING IS ISOLATED-SCT THUNDERSTORMS
   SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE WIND SHIFT...THOUGH MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID
   LEVEL CONVECTION COULD TRAIL THE COLD FRONT WHERE COOLER BOUNDARY
   LAYER AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE.  IF SFC BASED ACTIVITY CAN
   DEVELOP WHERE SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY EXISTS ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT
   THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITES FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
   HAIL.  FOR THIS REASON HAVE ADDED 5% RISK AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE
   DELMARVA REGION.  ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT OF SEVERE WILL QUICKLY END
   WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
   
   ..DARROW/ROGERS.. 09/15/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z