Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 161950
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011
   
   VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SERN AZ...NM THROUGH WRN TX...
   
   DIABATIC HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM AZ THROUGH NM WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 25-35 KT DEEP SHEAR. THIS
   PARAMETER SPACE WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT MULTICELL CONVECTION...BUT A
   FEW STORMS MAY ATTAIN MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE STRONGER
   STORMS COULD POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..DIAL.. 09/16/2011
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT...WITH A WEAK SPLIT IN
   THE FLOW MOVING SLOWLY E ACROSS THE GRT BASIN/CNTRL
   RCKYS...DOWNSTREAM FROM BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW/WRN CANADA.
   SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN THE SRN STREAM JET WILL
   ENHANCE TSTM PROBABILITIES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/POSSIBLY
   SVR ACTIVITY...OVER PARTS OF THE SRN HI PLNS.
   
   AT THE SFC...SHALLOW COOL DOME NOW IN PLACE ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF
   THE SRN/CNTRL RCKYS...ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING UPR TROUGH IN THE
   NORTHEAST...WILL BEGIN TO ERODE FROM THE W AND S LATER TODAY AS THE
   SRN STREAM IMPULSES CONTINUE E/ENEWD.
   
   ...SRN RCKYS/SRN HI PLNS...
   LEAD SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER S CNTRL CO SHOULD FURTHER
   WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SLOWLY ENEWD.  DIMINISHING LOW/MID LVL WAA
   RELATED TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD MAINTAIN SCTD ELEVATED TSTMS OVER
   PARTS OF SE OK AND THE ARKLATEX.  UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE NOW NEAR THE
   FOUR CORNERS ALSO SHOULD DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES E INTO SRN CO LATER
   TODAY.  TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE SRN RCKYS AND THE NM
   MTNS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND DAYTIME HEATING.  OTHER
   STORMS LIKELY WILL FORM OVER THE SRN HI PLNS IN RESPONSE TO SFC
   HEATING AND SELY LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF RETREATING SFC
   RIDGE.
   
   LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK.  BUT  COMBINATION
   OF INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW BENEATH FAIRLY STEEP MID
   LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT WDLY SCTD STRONGER STORMS BY MID AFTN
   OVER THE HI PLNS OF ERN NM/FAR W TX.  WITH SBCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG
   AND 30+ KT WSWLY MID LVL WINDS..SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW
   MULTICELLS/BRIEF SUPERCELLS WITH SVR HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND.
   SOME OF THE STORMS COULD SPREAD E/NE INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND
   PERHAPS SW KS THIS EVE AS SHALLOW COOL/STABLE LAYER CONTINUES TO
   ERODE NEWD...AND AS SLY LLJ DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM FROM STRONGER SRN
   STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER CA/NV.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z