Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 041613
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1113 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2011
   
   VALID 041630Z - 051200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SRN NV AND AZ...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING DEPICTS AN INITIAL MID-LVL
   SPEED MAX MIGRATING QUICKLY NWD INTO THE CNTRL GRT BASIN.  A
   COMPARATIVELY MORE POTENT PV-MAX WAS MIGRATING ACROSS SRN CA AND
   WILL TRAVEL EWD ACROSS NV/AZ THROUGH TONIGHT.
   
   STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
   WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
   WRN/CNTRL AZ DESERTS NWD INTO SRN NV AND THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION. 
   GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS SUGGEST THAT 0.75-1" VALUES WILL BE
   IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AND GIVEN COOLING MID-LVL
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND SOME INSOLATION...MLCAPES WILL RANGE FROM
   500-750 J/KG. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR BANDS OF TSTMS...LIKELY
   DEVELOPING SWD FROM CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER THE CO RVR VLY AND
   DOWNSTREAM OVER THE DESERTS THROUGH THE AFTN.  
   
   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AS NOSE OF A 50-70 KT
   WLY MID-LVL JET APPROACHES THE REGION.  THUS...ISOLD TSTMS MAY
   BRIEFLY ORGANIZE INTO STRONG MULTICELLS/BRIEF SUPERCELLS...BUT
   MARGINAL MOISTURE PROFILES WILL TEMPER THE OVERALL SVR THREAT. 
   SUSTAINED STORMS COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE SVR WIND/HAIL REPORTS BUT
   WIDESPREAD SVR STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
   
   ..RACY/COHEN.. 10/04/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z