Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 060539
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1239 AM CDT THU OCT 06 2011
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH
   PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POWERFUL WEST COAST TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD...BECOMING CENTERED
   OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES BY EVENING. CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER NERN
   CO AND ERN MT...GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING INTO A LEE TROUGH...WITH A
   WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE CIRCULATION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT.
   THEREAFTER...THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE NEWD INTO THE NRN
   HIGH PLAINS...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER ERN MT/WRN ND...AND
   A COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EWD INTO THE NRN CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
   MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NRN CA
   COAST...PROGRESSING TO THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   STRONG DEEP-LAYER SLYS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE TO
   GRADUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO MOISTENING...CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S QUICKLY DEVELOPING NWD. BROAD HEIGHT FALLS AND
   STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AMIDST THE FAVORABLE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF
   THE UPPER JET WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ROCKIES. AS DIURNAL HEATING IN
   COMBINATION WITH COOLING ALOFT GRADUALLY CONTRIBUTES TO STEEPENING
   LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STORMS WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO THE
   CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
   DRYLINE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ERODES.
   HOWEVER...STRONGER FORCING MAY QUICKLY LEAD TO MULTICELLULAR
   CLUSTERS AND SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS...PRIMARILY CAPABLE OF DMGG
   WINDS. IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
   STRENGTHEN...LEADING TO IMPRESSIVE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE /400+ M2/S2
   SFC-3 KM SRH/. SHOULD A DISCRETE STORM FORM...ROTATION WILL BE
   LIKELY...AND GIVEN LOWER LCL HEIGHTS ACROSS WRN SD AND FAR NW/N
   CNTRL NEB...A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEREAFTER...STORMS WILL
   BECOME ELEVATED IN NATURE...PROGRESSING EWD AND WEAKENING WITH TIME.
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   FARTHER S...THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL
   NORTH...WITH WEAK TO NEUTRAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE AREA GENERALLY
   SUPPRESSING MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS. DESPITE SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS INITIALLY IN THE 60S...BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WILL REDUCE
   DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY MID AFTERNOON...WHILE A DRY
   SLOT EVIDENT ON 0530Z WV IMAGERY WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NEWD INTO THE
   SRN PLAINS AROUND THE BASE OF THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH. THE
   RESULTING MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING WILL LEAD TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND
   INSTABILITY...ULTIMATELY HINDERING MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT.
   HOWEVER...SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   PROFILES REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ROTATION...WITH WEAK
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..HURLBUT/SMITH/EDWARDS.. 10/06/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z