Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 151239
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0739 AM CDT SAT OCT 15 2011
   
   VALID 151300Z - 161200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CLOSED LOW JUST N OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL PIVOT NEWD ACROSS QUEBEC AS
   AN UPSTREAM SPEED MAX DEVELOPS ESEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
   UPPER MS VALLEY.  COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND CONDITIONALLY
   UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB ACCOMPANYING THE
   MIDLEVEL LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
   LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION.  THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE
   FOCUSED THIS MORNING NEAR LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WHERE INSTABILITY
   WILL BE AUGMENTED BY HEAT/MOISTURE FLUXES FROM THE RELATIVELY WARM
   LAKES...AND THEN SPREAD NEWD OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ACROSS THE WRN STATES...A RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN
   ROCKIES...AS WILL A BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT FROM ORE ACROSS
   ID/MT/WY.  GRADUAL LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTENING ALONG AN ASSOCIATED E-W
   BAROCLINIC ZONE...COINCIDENT WITH THE N EDGE OF A STEEP LAPSE RATE
   PLUME...WILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY.  ASCENT
   ALONG THE FRONT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 10/15/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z