Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 171607
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1107 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2011
   
   VALID 171630Z - 181200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   DIGGING ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION.  THIS FEATURE WILL SWEEP
   INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING.  AFTER 00Z...MODELS
   AGREE ON RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS BEHIND A
   COLD FRONT THAT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS.  LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NOT RESPOND/
   INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG
   THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
   CENTRAL MO INTO NORTH TX.
   
   MOISTURE IS SPREADING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS TX...WITH 50S
   DEWPOINTS NOW INTO SOUTHEAST OK.  A COMBINATION OF STRONG DAYTIME
   HEATING AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE 
   UP TO 1000 J/KG NEAR THE APPROACHING FRONT.  HOWEVER...FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN EML WILL LIKELY CAP THE WARM SECTOR AND
   PRECLUDE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE STORMS THAT FORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE
   ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP.  STEEP
   MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND STRENGTH OF
   FORCING SUGGEST A RISK OF HAIL NEAR SEVERE LIMITS WITH THESE STORMS.
   ALSO...STRONG NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL NEED ONLY SLIGHT
   CONVECTIVE AUGMENTATION TO PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS.  THE
   THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS DIURNAL COOLING WEAKENS
   INSTABILITY.  A SMALL SLIGHT RISK WAS CONSIDERED NEAR THE RED RIVER
   /SOUTH OK AND NORTH TX/ WHERE INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS WOULD BE
   MAXIMIZED...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...FL KEYS...
   LOCAL RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL SMALL SUPERCELLULAR
   STORMS OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA INCLUDING NEAR
   THE KEYS.  THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
   IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF WEAK TROPICAL LOW.  LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS
   VERY FEW STRIKES IN THIS ACTIVITY...SUGGESTING THAT UPDRAFTS ARE NOT
   PARTICULARLY STRONG.  NEVERTHELESS...AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT OR
   TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
   
   ..HART/ROGERS.. 10/17/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z