Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 221954
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0254 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011
   
   VALID 222000Z - 231200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN
   OK...NORTH TX INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION...
   
   ...PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS TO THE ARKLATEX...
   PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TSTM INITIATION
   OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL OK BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON /21-23Z/ PER
   DEVELOPING CU FIELD FROM N-NE TX INTO SRN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK
   ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT.  IN ADDITION...TIMING OF SEWD MOVING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER KS INTO NWRN OK...IS ALSO ON
   TRACK TO AID IN UVVS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION YET THIS AFTERNOON
   OVER CENTRAL/SRN OK.
   
   MESOSCALE DETAILS PROVIDED IN SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #2268
   INDICATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH INITIAL
   ACTIVITY AND THIS TREND CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED WITH THE SEVERE
   HAIL PROBABILITIES...WHILE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS REMAINS
   POSSIBLE.  THUS...GREATER SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES ARE CENTERED
   EITHER SIDE OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.  GIVEN THE E/SEWD EXTENSION OF
   INSTABILITY INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FORWARD
   PROPAGATING MCS /AND ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER THREATS/ THIS
   EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THE SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO MORE
   OF THE ARKLATEX.
   
   ..PETERS.. 10/22/2011
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011/
   
   ...PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TNGT...
   MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST WERE MADE TO SHAVE OFF NWRN PARTS OF
   SVR PROBABILITIES/CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK OVER WRN OK AND ADD TO THE
   SRN FRINGE OF SVR RISKS IN N TX.
   
   LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES AS PLANNED WITH MID-UPR 50S DEW
   POINTS ANTICIPATED BY MID-AFTN NEAR A WARM FRONT IN CNTRL/SRN OK AND
   N TX /MLCAPES 500-1500 J PER KG/.  AS FORMIDABLE UPR WAVE OVER WRN
   KS BRUSHES ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS...TSTMS WILL INITIATE 22-23Z IN
   CNTRL OK ALA 12Z WRF-NMM/1.33KM NAM NESTED GRID.  THOUGH MID-LVL WLY
   FLOW EXHIBITS WEAKNESS...HIGH-LVL FLOW WILL BOOST EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVE.  COOL THERMO
   PROFILES AND 35-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
   HAIL.  
   
   FOCUSED AREA OF LLVL FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND CONTINUED ESE
   AMPLIFICATION OF DIFLUENT UPR TROUGH SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY COULD
   EVOLVE INTO A SMALL FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS OR TWO...WITH AN
   ASSOCIATED HAIL/MARGINAL WIND THREAT POSSIBLY CONTINUING SE ACROSS
   PARTS OF N TX AFTER DARK.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z