Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 010057
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0757 PM CDT MON OCT 31 2011
   
   VALID 010100Z - 011200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...FAR ERN NC AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...
   MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN
   APPALACHIANS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY
   TONIGHT AS IT LIFTS ENEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES.  IN
   THE LOW LEVELS...THE EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA
   OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED E OF FL /N OF THE BAHAMAS/...WITH A BOUNDARY
   EXTENDING NWD INTO FAR ERN NC.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS
   EWD...WITH A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE
   OF NC AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE APPALACHIANS TROUGH. 
   FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL WAA INTO ERN
   NC WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT /CLOUDS AND
   PRECIPITATION/ AS ALREADY OBSERVED PER REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE
   IMAGERY.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MORE STABLE AIR MASS INLAND AND
   CONFINE ANY TSTM POTENTIAL TO COASTAL AREAS OF NC/SERN VA.
   
   A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST UNTIL ABOUT 09Z...WHEN
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS/MODELS SHOW RISING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND AN
   INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE TO THE DE-AMPLIFYING
   TROUGH LIFTING ENEWD AWAY FROM THIS REGION.
   
   ...NRN ROCKIES...
   A FEW STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ERN ID/NWRN WY YET THIS
   EVENING...WHERE SUFFICIENT ASCENT DUE TO 1/ ENTRANCE REGION OF A
   MIDLEVEL JET...2/ SWLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND 3/ FORCING ALONG A PACIFIC
   COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING THE ONGOING CONVECTION. 
   HOWEVER...VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
   INDICATED MUCAPE AOB 100 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ...S FL...
   FRONTAL BAND MOVING S OF THE FL PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A
   NO TSTM THREAT OVER FAR S FL TONIGHT.
   
   ...UPPER OH VALLEY...
   THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING HAS REDUCED SBCAPE/LOW LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW TSTM
   ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.
   
   ..PETERS.. 11/01/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z