Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 101254
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0654 AM CST THU NOV 10 2011
   
   VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
   TX WILL SHIFT EWD AND REACH PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY LATE
   IN THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS LEADING THE
   TROUGH WILL BE FOUND NEAR AND NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE
   ATLANTIC. AS THESE HEIGHT FALLS OVERLAY A LOW-LEVEL FRONT CURRENTLY
   APPROACHING THE EAST COAST...A SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND
   RIDE NEWD ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.
   
   ...COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...
   AS LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS IS DRAWN
   INTO THE AREA AND LIFTED ATOP THE FRONT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   THAT A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK...ELEVATED INSTABILITY
   WILL TRANSLATE NEWD NEAR THE COAST IN TANDEM WITH THE TRACK OF THE
   DEEPENING SFC LOW. STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT OFFERED BY THE
   APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE INSTABILITY
   TO PROMOTE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A
   NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PREVENT
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION.
   
   ...GREAT LAKES...
   A POCKET OF COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /500-MB TEMP AROUND -35C PER
   12Z DAVENPORT SOUNDING/ WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. AS THESE COLD TEMPERATURES
   OVERLAY RELATIVELY WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES /MID 40S TO LOWER 50S F
   PER BUOY DATA/ OVER PORTIONS OF LAKES MICHIGAN/ERIE/HURON...STEEP
   LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION. WHILE
   MARGINAL...MLCAPE VALUES PER MODIFIED RUC/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF
   50-100 J/KG ARE ANTICIPATED...WITH A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP CAPE-BEARING
   LAYER FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
   TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ERN LAKE ONTARIO LATE IN THE
   PERIOD...BUT THE THREAT APPEARS TOO MINIMAL FOR A GENERAL THUNDER
   AREA THERE AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..COHEN/HART.. 11/10/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z