Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 220047
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0647 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011
   
   VALID 220100Z - 221200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM AR SWWD INTO ERN AND
   CENTRAL TX...
   
   ...AR...SERN OK AND CENTRAL/ERN TX...
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL AR SWWD THROUGH THE
   ARKLATEX AND INTO CENTRAL TX. THUS FAR...THE UPPER FORCING
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE...NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TX
   PANHANDLE...HAS RESULTED IN CONVECTION TO OCCUR PRIMARILY ON THE
   COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY ACROSS
   NWRN TX AND INTO OK HAS WEAKENED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... ESPECIALLY
   WEST OF A TUL-ADM-SJT LINE...DECREASING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL.
   
   THE PORTION OF THE FRONT IN ERN TX HAS BEEN LIFTING SLOWLY NWWD THE
   PAST FEW HOURS...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER NRN
   TX/SRN OK IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. EVENTUALLY THE STORMS
   FROM SERN AR SWWD INTO CENTRAL TX WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE WARMER AND
   MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ALSO...AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO
   KS AND BECOMES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED... CYCLOGENESIS IS
   EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT IN NRN AR LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT SURFACE
   BASED STORMS TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE/DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT
   AS IT BEGINS TO HEAD EWD...WITH A LITTLE HIGHER THREAT FOR WIND
   DAMAGE AND HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM NERN TX
   INTO SWRN AR WHERE LARGE HODOGRAPHS WILL EXIST AS SURFACE LOWS
   DEVELOP AND LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT OVERSPREADS THE REGION LATER
   TONIGHT.
   
   ..IMY.. 11/22/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z