Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 230047
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0647 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011
   
   VALID 230100Z - 231200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN FAR ERN AL AND PORTIONS OF
   GA AND SC...
   
   ...ERN AL/GA NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...
   PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH FAR SERN AL AND WRN
   GA THIS EVENING. A THREAT OF TORNADOES AND POSSIBLE DAMAGING GUSTS
   WILL EXIST WITH THESE STORMS...REFERENCE WW/S 895 AND 896.
   
   THE STORMS IN AL/GA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ENEWD
   OVERNIGHT AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. HOWEVER ...THE
   MOIST VERTICAL PROFILES/WEAK LAPSE RATES/MARGINAL INSTABILITY BRING
   UNCERTAINTY TO THE TORNADO THREAT EAST AND NORTHEAST OF CURRENT
   TORNADO WATCHES. SINCE THE STRONGER INSTABILITY...MLCAPES AROUND 500
   J/KG...IS LIKELY TO BE PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20...HAVE
   MAINTAINED SLIGHT RISK...BUT ADJUSTED THE RISK AREA SWD TO ACCOUNT
   FOR BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY.
   
   FURTHER NORTH INTO NC...STRENGTHENING ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS WILL YIELD
   STRONG DEEP/LOW LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS... ESPECIALLY AFTER
   06Z. HOWEVER...STORM MODE LATER TONIGHT IS IN QUESTION AS THE PCPN
   CURRENTLY MOVING EWD FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IS A LARGE AREA
   OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
   CURRENT CONVECTIVE MODE...CONFIDENCE OF MORE DISCRETE STORMS WITH
   STRONGER UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT IS LOW. HOWEVER...HAVE
   MAINTAINED LOW TORNADO/WIND PROBABILITIES SHOULD INDIVIDUAL STORMS
   MATERIALIZE VERY LATE TONIGHT.
   
   ..IMY.. 11/23/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z