Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 251915
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0115 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2011
   
   VALID 252000Z - 261200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EXISTING THUNDER LINE OVER TX...OTHERWISE NO
   CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 11/25/2011
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2011/
   
   LITTLE CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST NEEDED.  EXPANDED LOW TSTM
   PROBABILITIES FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN KS/ERN
   OK.  LATEST 12Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THAT MAXIMUM IN WARM/MOIST
   ADVECTION PROFILES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z IMMEDIATELY
   ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT.  NO SVR WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
   
   
   REMAINDER OF DISCUSSION VALID AND UNCHANGED.
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0638 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2011/
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE BUT INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE
   CONUS THIS PERIOD AS HEIGHTS RISE ALONG THE W CST IN RESPONSE TO
   DEEPENING PACIFIC SYSTEM NOW NEARING 150W.  RISING HEIGHTS IN THE
   WEST SHOULD FOSTER PHASING OF THE TWO DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
   NOW PRESENT OVER THE NRN RCKYS AND THE SWRN STATES.  THE SWRN SYSTEM
   
   SHOULD CONTINUE ENE TO THE NM/TX BORDER BY THIS EVE...WHILE THE NRN
   SYSTEM AMPLIFIES ESE INTO WY. THE TWO SHOULD PHASE OVER WRN PORTIONS
   
   OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS EARLY SAT...AND EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED
   LOW/TROUGH OVER THE MS VLY EARLY SUN.
   
   ...SRN RCKYS/SRN PLNS...
   MID/UPR LVL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING NE IN WARM
   CONVEYOR BELT ASSOCIATED WITH SWRN TROUGH.  AS THIS MOISTURE
   OVERSPREADS THE SRN RCKYS AND HI PLNS...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED BUOYANCY
   
   MAY DEVELOP TO SUPPORT WEAK CONVECTION/ISOLD TSTMS...ESPECIALLY FROM
   
   NM ENE INTO PARTS OF OK LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHERE MUCAPE COULD
   APPROACH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG.
   
   FARTHER S...A NARROW ZONE OF LWR LVL MOISTURE INFLOW/WAA WILL FOCUS
   ALONG CONFLUENCE AXIS/LEE TROUGH OVER THE RIO GRANDE VLY REGION OF S
   
   TX.  BOTH MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND DEGREE OF LOW LVL MOISTENING WILL
   REMAIN MODEST...LIMITING DESTABILIZATION.  BUT CONVERGENCE/WAA MAY
   SUPPORT A FEW NEAR SFC-BASED STORMS DURING THE LATE EVE/OVERNIGHT
   HOURS.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z