Nov 25, 2011 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |
Updated: Fri Nov 25 19:20:10 UTC 2011 | |
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic |
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
SPC AC 251915 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0115 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2011 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EXISTING THUNDER LINE OVER TX...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. ..JEWELL.. 11/25/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2011/ LITTLE CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST NEEDED. EXPANDED LOW TSTM PROBABILITIES FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN KS/ERN OK. LATEST 12Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THAT MAXIMUM IN WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PROFILES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z IMMEDIATELY ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT. NO SVR WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. REMAINDER OF DISCUSSION VALID AND UNCHANGED. .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0638 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2011/ ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE BUT INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE CONUS THIS PERIOD AS HEIGHTS RISE ALONG THE W CST IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING PACIFIC SYSTEM NOW NEARING 150W. RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WEST SHOULD FOSTER PHASING OF THE TWO DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOW PRESENT OVER THE NRN RCKYS AND THE SWRN STATES. THE SWRN SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ENE TO THE NM/TX BORDER BY THIS EVE...WHILE THE NRN SYSTEM AMPLIFIES ESE INTO WY. THE TWO SHOULD PHASE OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS EARLY SAT...AND EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED LOW/TROUGH OVER THE MS VLY EARLY SUN. ...SRN RCKYS/SRN PLNS... MID/UPR LVL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING NE IN WARM CONVEYOR BELT ASSOCIATED WITH SWRN TROUGH. AS THIS MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE SRN RCKYS AND HI PLNS...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED BUOYANCY MAY DEVELOP TO SUPPORT WEAK CONVECTION/ISOLD TSTMS...ESPECIALLY FROM NM ENE INTO PARTS OF OK LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHERE MUCAPE COULD APPROACH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. FARTHER S...A NARROW ZONE OF LWR LVL MOISTURE INFLOW/WAA WILL FOCUS ALONG CONFLUENCE AXIS/LEE TROUGH OVER THE RIO GRANDE VLY REGION OF S TX. BOTH MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND DEGREE OF LOW LVL MOISTENING WILL REMAIN MODEST...LIMITING DESTABILIZATION. BUT CONVERGENCE/WAA MAY SUPPORT A FEW NEAR SFC-BASED STORMS DURING THE LATE EVE/OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z