Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 260525
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1125 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2011
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY...
   
   LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE
   PROGRESSION OF PLAINS UPPER TROUGH AS IT DIGS TOWARD THE ARKLATEX
   AND FORMS A CLOSED CIRCULATION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS
   EVOLUTION IS SUPPORTED BY STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACK
   SIDE OF TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WHICH SHOULD DRIVE SEWD INTO
   TX LATE IN THE PERIOD.  NET RESULT WILL BE FOR A SHARPENING FRONTAL
   ZONE ACROSS WRN AR/ERN TX BY 18Z BEFORE SURGING ACROSS THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  EARLIER THOUGHTS WERE
   MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WOULD BE A BIT MEAGER TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUCH
   THAT SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL EASILY BE ATTAINED ALONG/AHEAD OF
   COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 17-18Z.  GIVEN THAT DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR WILL EASILY SUPPORT ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS...IT APPEARS
   THE THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ALONG A FORCED FRONTAL SQUALL
   LINE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  LATEST THINKING IS DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
   THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT DUE TO THE EXPECTED LINEAR STRUCTURE. 
   EVEN SO STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS FAVOR AT LEAST A
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.  PROGRESSION OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
   SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAKER BUOYANCY OVER ERN MS/SWRN AL.
   
   ..DARROW/SMITH.. 11/26/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z