Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 291957
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0157 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2011
   
   VALID 292000Z - 301200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...ERN NC/ERN VA AND ADJACENT MD/PART OF CENTRAL PA...
   THIS UPDATE HAS TRIMMED THE WRN PART OF THE GENERAL TSTM AREA GIVEN
   THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND ATTENDANT TO THE WARM CONVEYOR HAS
   SHIFTED ENEWD AS THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHES THE UPPER OH VALLEY
   REGION.
   
   ...IND/NWRN OH/SRN LOWER MI...
   SINCE 1630Z...LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED A STRIKE OR TWO OVER INDIANA
   WITHIN THE STRONG DYNAMICS ATTENDANT TO THE DEFORMATION ZONE. 
   HOWEVER...THE WEAK INSTABILITY EVIDENT IN OBJECTIVE ANALYSES EARLIER
   HAS DIMINISHED AND THUS...ANY ADDITIONAL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
   
   ..PETERS.. 11/29/2011
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0954 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2011/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A DEEP/CLOSED LOW OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS WILL TRANSLATE NEWD THROUGH
   THE PERIOD AND REACH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO BY 12Z WED...AND
   WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LIMITED THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   NERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. FARTHER W...A COMPACT MID/UPPER-LEVEL
   CYCLONE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC...PRESENTLY CENTERED NEAR
   51N135W...WILL TRANSLATE ESEWD AND REACH THE WA/ORE COAST BY LATE IN
   THE PERIOD. STABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL PREVENT THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NEW ENGLAND...
   ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN THE WNW-ESE-ORIENTED SEGMENT OF THE WARM
   CONVEYOR BELT LEADING THE MIGRATORY DEEP/CLOSED LOW WILL CROSS THE
   ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR AND NNE OF THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS WILL SERVE
   TO INCREASE THE FETCH LENGTH OF PARCEL TRAJECTORIES OVER
   COMPARATIVELY WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS...AND SUPPORT VERY MODEST
   DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A BROAD PRECIP SHIELD WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
   LOW. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPE VALUES REACHING 100-150
   J/KG ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...WITH
   SIMILAR QUANTITIES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOSING AS FAR W AS CNTRL
   PA AHEAD OF A NWD-LIFTING SFC FRONT. IN THESE AREAS...ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE LIMITED/ELEVATED NATURE
   OF CAPE PROFILES WILL GREATLY MITIGATE THE SVR THREAT DESPITE STRONG
   TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
   
   ...IND/NWRN OH/LOWER MI...
   MEAGER INSTABILITY /MUCAPE VALUES AOB 100 J PER KG/ WILL EXIST FOR
   HIGHLY ELEVATED PARCELS /ROOTED ABOVE THE 700-MB LEVEL/ WITHIN THE
   SEGMENT OF THE BIFURCATED WARM CONVEYOR BELT CURLING AROUND THE WRN
   SEMICIRCLE OF THE CLOSED LOW. THIS COULD SUPPORT A LIGHTNING STRIKE
   OR TWO...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE BANDED PRECIP
   STRUCTURES WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE LOW. HOWEVER...THE
   LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY PRECLUDES DELINEATION OF A GENERAL
   THUNDER AREA AT THIS TIME.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z