Dec 5, 2011 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Dec 5 00:18:09 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20111205 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20111205 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20111205 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20111205 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 050014
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0614 PM CST SUN DEC 04 2011
   
   VALID 050100Z - 051200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SRN PLAINS...
   ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS TX
   AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER SW TX...EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE
   REGION. SLY FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE STABLE LAYER WILL INCREASE LIFT
   AND MAINTAIN A MOISTURE FEED WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY. RAIN AND
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS
   UNLIKELY. VERY SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 12/05/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z