Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 051940
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0140 PM CST MON DEC 05 2011
   
   VALID 052000Z - 061200Z
   
   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY...
   HAVE REMOVED GENERAL TSTM AREA AS RISK HAS BECOME MINIMAL. SHORT
   WAVE IMPULSE CENTERED OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
   RAPIDLY PROGRESS NEWD TOWARDS THE NRN APPALACHIANS. AS LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT DIMINISHES WITHIN A MEAGERLY BUOYANT WARM SECTOR...POTENTIAL
   APPEARS LOW FOR REDEVELOPING TSTMS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 12/05/2011
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST MON DEC 05 2011/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POSITIVE TILT LARGE SCALE TROUGH...NOW ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE ERN
   DAKOTAS TO THE FOUR CORNERS...WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH TOMORROW.
    WITHIN THIS REGIME...A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NE TX WILL
   ACCELERATE NEWD TO THE OH VALLEY.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK WAVE WILL
   DEVELOP NEWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH THE EJECTING/WEAKENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH.  A NARROW
   MOIST WARM SECTOR RESIDES ACROSS LA/SRN MS/SW AL IN ADVANCE OF THE
   COLD FRONT...BUT REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEALED ONLY WEAK
   INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.  THUS...THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM
   RISK WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH TIME...AND WHAT STORMS
   DO FORM WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF
   THE FRONT.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z