Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 071629
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1029 AM CST WED DEC 07 2011
   
   VALID 071630Z - 081200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...NC TO THE DELMARVA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
   A STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
   ACCELERATE ENEWD TO THE CAROLINAS BY THIS EVENING AND JUST OFF THE
   SE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
   DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN NW NC/SW VA ALONG A PRE-EXISTING
   FRONT...AND DEEPEN WHILE MOVING NEWD TO SE NEW ENGLAND AND THE GULF
   OF MAINE BY THURSDAY MORNING.  A MODIFYING WRN ATLANTIC AIR MASS HAS
   SPREAD INLAND IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW/FRONT...WITH BOUNDARY
   LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS INTO SE VA. 
   HOWEVER...WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE
   GREATLY LIMITING LAPSE RATES AND CAPE.
   
   PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A SHALLOW FORCED BAND OF CONVECTION
   WILL FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SURGES EWD
   ACROSS THE CAROLINAS /S OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/.  THE CAPE
   PROFILES MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING PRODUCTION ACROSS
   VA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION /AND LITTLE
   LIGHTNING RISK/ EXPECTED FARTHER S INTO NC.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
   WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR OF 40-50 KT /EVEN WITH THE SHALLOW BUOYANCY OVER ERN NC/...AND
   EFFECTIVE SRH AOA 200 M2/S2.  ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTIVE BAND DESPITE MLCAPE OF ONLY 1OO-250
   J/KG AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WARMER THAN -10 TO -15
   C...AND A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
   RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
   
   ..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 12/07/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z