Dec 12, 2011 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Dec 12 19:37:07 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20111212 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20111212 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20111212 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20111212 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 121933
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0133 PM CST MON DEC 12 2011
   
   VALID 122000Z - 131200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO 1630Z OUTLOOK...NAMELY TO REMOVE THE
   THUNDERSTORM THREAT FROM THE SERN U.S.  LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
   SUGGESTS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING BEYOND THE REGION OF
   CONCERN AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION THE REST OF
   THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE...EARLIER THINKING REMAINS WITH ONLY A FEW
   ROGUE TSTMS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SWRN U.S.
   
   ..DARROW.. 12/12/2011
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST MON DEC 12 2011/
   
   ...SOUTHEAST...
   WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST AT
   LATE MORNING. VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT OUTSIDE OF AN
   ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO NEAR THE COAST EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
   RESTRICTED TO THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES
   THROUGH REGION. 
   
   ...SOUTHWEST...
   BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE PACIFIC STATES...WITH AN
   EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD INTO SRN CA. FORCING ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE UPPER IMPULSE AND RESULTANT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
   YIELD ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH SUFFICIENT DEPTH FOR 
   A FEW LIGHTING STRIKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z