Dec 12, 2011 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |
Updated: Mon Dec 12 19:37:07 UTC 2011 | |
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic |
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
SPC AC 121933 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0133 PM CST MON DEC 12 2011 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO 1630Z OUTLOOK...NAMELY TO REMOVE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FROM THE SERN U.S. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING BEYOND THE REGION OF CONCERN AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION THE REST OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EARLIER THINKING REMAINS WITH ONLY A FEW ROGUE TSTMS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SWRN U.S. ..DARROW.. 12/12/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST MON DEC 12 2011/ ...SOUTHEAST... WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST AT LATE MORNING. VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO NEAR THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY RESTRICTED TO THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH REGION. ...SOUTHWEST... BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE PACIFIC STATES...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD INTO SRN CA. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER IMPULSE AND RESULTANT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH SUFFICIENT DEPTH FOR A FEW LIGHTING STRIKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z