Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 151224
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0624 AM CST THU DEC 15 2011
   
   VALID 151300Z - 161200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   A BAND OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
   MEXICO...ACROSS TX/OK...INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES.  BENEATH THIS
   FLOW REGIME...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD
   ACROSS TX/AR.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
   OCCURRING OVERNIGHT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL BAND FROM CENTRAL TX INTO
   WEST TN.  NEW STORMS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO RECENTLY FORM OVER NORTH TX
   AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.
   
   MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
   WEAKENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
   DAY AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. 
   HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
   FOR SOME RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND
   AND/OR NEAR THE FRONT AS IT SAGS ACROSS THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
   RISK AREA.  AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM PRODUCING SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT THIS MORNING OVER NORTH TX...BUT THE THREAT DOES NOT
   APPEAR TO WARRANT 5 PERCENT PROBABILITIES.  OTHERWISE...NO SEVERE
   STORMS ARE FORECAST.
   
   ..HART/GARNER.. 12/15/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z