Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 161226
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0626 AM CST FRI DEC 16 2011
   
   VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
   
   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EXISTING SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL TRANSITION TO A NRN STREAM-DOMINANT
   PATTERN AS CLOSED LOW NOW OVER NRN BAJA CA CONTINUES SLOWLY SWD AND
   BECOMES FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS THAT WILL
   PERSIST FROM THE CANADIAN RCKYS TO THE MID MS VLY.  AS THIS
   OCCURS...SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW ENTERING AR SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN AS
   IT ACCELERATES ENE IN CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE TN/OH VLYS.  COLD
   FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE ACROSS GULF
   CST/SERN STATES.
   
   ...LA INTO TN VLY...
   ISOLD TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ATTM ALONG AND N OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD
   FRONT IN CNTRL LA...WHERE WEAK NEAR-SFC BASED BUOYANCY EXISTS WITHIN
   CORE OF ASSOCIATED LOW TO MID LVL MOISTURE PLUME /PW AROUND 1.25
   INCHES/...AND ASCENT IS BEING ENHANCED ON SRN FRINGE OF DEPARTING
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSE.  OTHER STORMS ARE PRESENT ALONG PRE-FRONTAL
   CONFLUENCE AXIS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.  ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY
   SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
   UPR DISTURBANCE CONTINUES NE AWAY FROM REGION.  WHILE SOME MID LVL
   CONVECTION MAY PRECEDE THE DISTURBANCE OVER PARTS OF THE TN VLY
   THROUGH EARLY AFTN...DEPTH OF UNSTABLE LAYER AND DEGREE OF
   INSTABILITY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT TSTMS...ESPECIALLY
   CONSIDERING EXPECTED WEAKENING OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.
   
   ...SRN CA/SRN AZ...
   COLD AIR ALOFT/STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA
   AND SW AZ TODAY...IN NE QUADRANT OF SLOW MOVING UPR LOW.  BUT
   ASSOCIATED LOW TO MID LVL TRAJECTORIES OFF THE PLATEAU WILL LIMIT
   MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.  WHILE A FEW DIURNAL
   BUILDUPS MAY APPEAR OVER THE FAR SRN CA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTN...ANY
   LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLD.
   
   ..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 12/16/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z