Dec 23, 2011 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |
Updated: Fri Dec 23 04:38:07 UTC 2011 | |
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic |
---|
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
SPC AC 230434 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1034 PM CST THU DEC 22 2011 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MINIMAL TSTM POTENTIAL EXPECTED OVER THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY SAT. A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY E/NEWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY NOON. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING BEFORE DECELERATING OVER SERN GA/NRN FL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...A COMBINATION OF MEAGER/SHALLOW BUOYANCY...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DECREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...AND LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD PRECLUDE AN APPRECIABLE TSTM RISK. ..GRAMS.. 12/23/2011 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z