Dec 23, 2011 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Dec 23 04:38:07 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20111223 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20111223 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20111223 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20111223 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 230434
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1034 PM CST THU DEC 22 2011
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MINIMAL TSTM POTENTIAL EXPECTED OVER THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY SAT. A
   SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY
   E/NEWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY NOON. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
   FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING BEFORE
   DECELERATING OVER SERN GA/NRN FL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
   SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
   COMBINATION OF MEAGER/SHALLOW BUOYANCY...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...DECREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...AND LACK OF
   UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD PRECLUDE AN APPRECIABLE TSTM RISK.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 12/23/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z