Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 242000
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0200 PM CST SAT DEC 24 2011
   
   VALID 242000Z - 251200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...WITH COMBINATION OF
   LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND VERY
   MEAGER INSTABILITY TO YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SPORADIC LIGHTING
   ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS REGION AND EWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   ..GOSS.. 12/24/2011
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0948 AM CST SAT DEC 24 2011/
   
   ...ERN TX...WRN/NRN LA...FAR SRN AR...
   SURFACE AND UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS AT 12Z SHOW 850-700 MB
   WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS COASTAL TX AHEAD OF A COLD
   CORE MIDLEVEL LOW POSITIONED OVER FAR W TX. IN ADDITION...OBSERVED
   RAOBS OVER TX INDICATE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST OVER THE
   REGION...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODEL
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES WILL GRADUALLY STEEPEN BY
   EVENING...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MUCAPE VALUES FROM 100-200
   J/KG ROOTED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ERN TX
   FROM 20-04Z...AND THEN SHIFT INTO WRN/NRN LA AND FAR SRN AR BETWEEN
   04-12Z...AT WHICH POINT LIGHTNING COVERAGE MAY INCREASE AS COLDER EL
   TEMPERATURES DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z