SPC AC 050538
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2011
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...FL...
WLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL
PENINSULA INTO THE DAY2 PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER THE ERN U.S. WLY FLOW AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT WILL HOWEVER ALLOW A
MORE MOIST AIRMASS TO ADVECT ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH PWAT VALUES
EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IT APPEARS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
WILL ONLY MODESTLY DESTABILIZE...BUT LIKELY SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP
UPDRAFTS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EVEN SO...WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD LIMIT GREATER COVERAGE OF TSTMS TO
AREAS OFF THE ERN FL PENINSULA OVER THE GULF STREAM. ALTHOUGH
FORECAST SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEAR TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SEVERE
RISK AT THIS TIME ANY INCREASE IN INSTABILITY COULD REQUIRE 5%
PROBABILITIES IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
..DARROW.. 01/05/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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