SPC AC 161729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST SUN JAN 16 2011
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FL PENINSULA...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PREVALENT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MONDAY. WITHIN THIS REGIME...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE A POLAR
JET/SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE MS VALLEY/GULF COAST. A TSTM AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT WILL EXIST PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ON MONDAY...WITH
THE CONUS OTHERWISE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL STABLE CONDITIONS
VOID OF A DEEP CONVECTIVE THREAT.
...FL PENINSULA...
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY MORNING...CORRESPONDING MODEST
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO ACROSS THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND SUBSEQUENTLY TOWARD THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF THE CAROLINAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...SHOWERS
AND SOME TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF MONDAY. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY OCCUR
IN AN ELEVATED SENSE NORTH OF A NORTHWARD-RETREATING WARM
FRONT...WHILE THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA
OTHERWISE GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES /ALBEIT MODESTLY/ DURING THE DAY
AMID A MARITIME AIRMASS WITH LOWER/MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
FORECAST CONCERN/UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST REGARDING THE DEGREE OF WARM
SECTOR DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH THE BRUNT OF
LARGE SCALE FORCING. THIS WILL BE LARGELY OWING TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF
REINFORCING-TYPE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE MARINE WARM FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCES OF ONLY MODEST SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS. REGARDLESS...GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SBCAPE TO UPWARDS OF
500 J/KG IN CONJUNCTION WITH 150-200 M2/S2 OF 0-3 KM SRH...WILL
MAINTAIN A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK FOR WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE AN
ISOLATED RISK FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWS CAPABLE OF A TORNADO
AND/OR WIND DAMAGE.
..GUYER.. 01/16/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
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