SPC AC 041726
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CST FRI MAR 04 2011
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT INITIALLY STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST SWWD INTO E TX IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY/MID SOUTH/SOUTHEAST REGION...WITH FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH ACROSS A BROAD AREA...ENCOMPASSING THE S
CENTRAL AND INTO THE SERN CONUS.
AS THE SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS INVOF SERN LA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS AL TOWARD GA...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SLYS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN BOTH MOIST ADVECTION AND SHEAR --
SUPPORTING SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
ELSEWHERE...A MORE NONDESCRIPT UPPER PATTERN AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE THREAT.
...LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD FROM PORTIONS OF ERN TX EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION...WITH LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS A SIZEABLE PORTION OF
THIS AREA. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME MORE
FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION...AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
SUPPORTS A FAVORABLE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. WITH DEEP-LAYER
WIND FIELD ALREADY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS/LIMITED SEVERE
THREAT...THIS INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS ISOLATED TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EVOLVE -- PARTICULARLY FROM SERN LA EWD ACROSS
SRN MS...AND THEN LATER INTO SWRN AL AND INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE FL
PANHANDLE. WHILE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY LACK
OF MORE FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/AIRMASS INSTABILITY
/EXPECTED ONSHORE MIXED-LAYER CAPE GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 500
J/KG/...THREAT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SLIGHT RISK FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 03/04/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
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