Mar 5, 2011 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Mar 5 17:32:54 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20110305 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20110305 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 051730
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CST SAT MAR 05 2011
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ENERGETIC/PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH -- CROSSING THE OH VALLEY/MID
   SOUTH/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- WILL
   CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
   PERIOD...TAKING ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME.  MEANWHILE...AS
   THE TROUGH THEN CONTINUES TOWARD THE E COAST OVERNIGHT...A SECOND
   TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG QUICKLY SEWD OUT OF THE NERN PACIFIC TO THE
   W COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  IN BETWEEN...FAST/SEMI-ZONAL FLOW
   ALOFT WILL PREVAIL.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...A LOW INITIALLY INVOF WRN SC IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
   QUICKLY NNEWD TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
   EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD
   FROM GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE REGION EARLY TO AN OFFSHORE POSITION
   OVERNIGHT.  STRONG SHEAR -- BUT MODEST MOISTURE AND VERY LIMITED
   INSTABILITY -- AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE LIMITED SEVERE THREAT
   FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES NWD TO ROUGHLY THE DELMARVA AREA.
   
   ...MID-ATLANTIC COAST SSWWD INTO NRN FL...
   SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
   APPALACHIANS REGION ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS -- MAINLY
   FROM GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE VICINITY SWD INTO THE GULF.  CONVECTION
   WILL THEN SWEEP FAIRLY RAPIDLY EWD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
   FRONT...BUT LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS INVOF 60 IN
   THE WARM SECTOR/ AND FAIRLY WEAK LAPSE RATES OWING TO WIDESPREAD
   CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION/MOISTURE ALOFT WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY.  THIS
   LIMITED INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE AN EFFECTIVE LIMITER OF A MORE
   ROBUST SEVERE EVENT...AS SHEAR -- BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER --
   WOULD OTHERWISE SUPPORT MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT.  
   
   WHILE SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE WAS CONSIDERED FROM N FL/GA NWD TOWARD THE
   ERN CAROLINAS/SERN VA...ATTM MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CONCERNS PRECLUDE
   SUCH ACTION.  A FEW SEVERE STORMS -- WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
   POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO -- WILL LIKELY EVOLVE WITHIN
   THE LARGER AREA OF GENERALLY WEAKER CONVECTION...BUT PROBABILITY
   APPEARS TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW OVERALL -- BELOW SLIGHT RISK
   THRESHOLDS.  CONVECTION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH TIME...LIKELY
   DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL GA/SC REGIONS...BUT LINGERING
   OVER ERN NC/ERN VA AND THE DELMARVA REGION INTO THE EVENING.
   
   ...WRN FL...
   SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER THE ERN GULF...BUT MUCH
   WEAKER SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED.  THUS...WHILE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO
   COULD MOVE ONTO THE WRN FL COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...SEVERE
   THREAT APPEARS LIMITED AT BEST.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/05/2011
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z