Mar 23, 2011 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Mar 23 06:04:03 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20110323 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20110323 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 230523
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1223 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT BLOCKING WILL REMAIN PROMINENT
   WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW IMPACTING MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA
   THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
   CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES APPEARS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN
   STRENGTH...WHILE THE CENTER OF A BROAD CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
   LOWER ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.  IT APPEARS THAT TROUGHING NEAR THE
   PACIFIC COAST MAY LOSE SOME AMPLITUDE...BUT STRONG FLOW IS EXPECTED
   TO PERSIST FROM THE CREST OF AN EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC RIDGE THROUGH A
   BROADLY CYCLONIC BELT ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
   WEST.  SEVERAL VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
   REGIME...ONE OF WHICH IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
   INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER TURNS INLAND
   ACROSS THE OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.  THESE FEATURES MAY
   CONTRIBUTE TO SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY. 
   HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION IS EXPECTED
   TO BE GENERALLY LOW...IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   ACCELERATING EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
   OFFSHORE CYCLOGENESIS.
   
   ...MID ATLANTIC COAST...
   LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT 500
   MB JET STREAK MAY STILL BE CONTRIBUTING TO A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
   AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED
   TO RAPIDLY SHIFT EAST OF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING...ENDING ANY
   LINGERING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
   
   ...PLAINS...
   22/21Z NCEP SREF APPEARS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH
   THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PROGRESSING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
   CREST OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
   IN TURN...LOW-LEVEL SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
   ROCKIES IS MUCH WEAKER...WITH MOISTURE RETURN ALSO MUCH SLOWER TO
   DEVELOP THURSDAY.  THIS IS LOWERING CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THAT COULD DEVELOP.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED STORM
   DEVELOPMENT ROOTED IN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER STILL APPEARS
   POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE PECOS VALLEY
   INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS.  AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES WITHIN
   A STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME MAY NOT
   BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE NEAR/NORTH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
   
   ...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...
   GUIDANCE ALSO APPEARS GENERALLY FASTER WITH THE INLAND PROGRESSION
   OF ANOTHER VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW...WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY
   STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING /500 MB TEMPS BELOW -30C/ AND STRENGTHENING
   VERTICAL SHEAR AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  SHEAR PROBABLY
   WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
   TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH EVEN WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. 
   THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN... BUT THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS A TORNADO...MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY
   NEGLIGIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO
   VALLEY.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/23/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z