SPC AC 100545
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2011
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OH
VALLEY AND CNTRL TO NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF
COAST STATES...
...UPPER OH VALLEY/CNTRL TO NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY MONDAY AS AN
IMPRESSIVE 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY.
THIS JET IS FORECAST TO EXTEND NEWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES WITH A
SQUALL-LINE ONGOING AT 12Z MONDAY FROM NEAR LAKE ERIE SWWD INTO THE
MID-MS VALLEY. THE LINE SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO WRN NY...WRN PA...ERN
OH AND CNTRL KY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE
LINE IS EXPECTED AS SFC TEMPS WARM. THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL CREATE
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUGGESTING
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELL
ELEMENTS WITHIN THE LINE. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY
OCCUR WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS...THE GREATER THREAT SHOULD BE
WIND DAMAGE DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS.
...CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...
THE SRN END OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
OZARKS AND ARKLATEX MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A NEARLY
CONTINUOUS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z MONDAY
FROM FAR SE MO SWWD INTO THE ARKLATEX. THIS LINE MAY CONTAIN AN
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MONDAY MORNING...MOVING SEWD INTO THE TN
VALLEY AND LOWER MS VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS
FORECAST AHEAD OF THE LINE AS SFC TEMPS WARM...RESULTING IN
INTENSIFICATION AROUND MIDDAY. 850 MB WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KT...UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED SEGMENTS
WITHIN THE LINE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST
ESPECIALLY IF SUPERCELLS OR DISCRETE STORMS CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR.
..BROYLES.. 04/10/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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