Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 050537
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1237 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2011
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
   AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z...WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT
   EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. AT THE
   SURFACE...SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH A WEAK LOW
   PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY...WITH SLY WINDS HELPING
   TO PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWD. TO THE W...A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
   ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO
   RETURN NWD INTO TX LATE.
   
   ...ERN KS/NERN OK...CNTRL MO INTO NRN AR OVERNIGHT...
   MODELS INDICATE A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE FEATURE COULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS
   THE CNTRL PLAINS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR A
   FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM SERN KS INTO SRN MO. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT CAPPING WILL BE A CONCERN AND LITTLE INSTABILITY
   WILL EXIST FOR STORMS INITIALLY...BUT A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET AND
   THETA-E AXIS WILL NOSE INTO THE MO VALLEY AND THE CAP MAY BE
   BREACHED. GIVEN THAT THE ONLY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
   BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WILL DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR A
   POSSIBLE 5% UPGRADE.
   
   ...ERN NC...
   STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH BUT LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE FOR INSTABILITY WILL BE IN QUESTION. STILL...MINIMAL
   INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITH
   DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPACT UPPER SPEED
   MAX...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF THIS SYSTEM MOVES
   SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A MORE UNSTABLE
   WARM SECTOR PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
   MAINLY FOR WIND COULD BE WARRANTED.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 05/05/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z