Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 270601
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0101 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2011
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CNTRL
   PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD THROUGH THE WRN STATES...REACHING THE GREAT
   BASIN AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH CORRESPONDING AMPLIFICATION OF
   DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE SERN STATES. DESPITE GRADUAL HEIGHT
   RISES...FAST BELT OF WLYS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID
   MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A COUPLE OF IMPULSES ROTATE
   THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER MANITOBA.
   
   AT THE SURFACE A FRONT WILL EXTEND SWD FROM AN OCCLUDED LOW INTO THE
   ERN DAKOTAS EARLY SATURDAY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE EWD INTO THE UPPER
   MS VALLEY. A WARM FRONT ORIGINATING FROM SURFACE LOW IN WRN OK EWD
   THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY MAY MOVE SLIGHTLY NWD DURING THE PERIOD.
   DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH ERN PORTIONS OF WRN TX.
   
   
   ...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MID-MS VALLEY AREA...
   
   CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE ONGOING NORTH
   OF WARM FRONT FROM ERN KS INTO MO RESULTING FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
   NOSE OF A 50+ KT SLY LLJ. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EWD INTO IL
   AND IND AS LLJ MIGRATES EWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEAD IMPULSE MOVING
   THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
   BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF ONGOING ACTIVITY...AND THERE IS
   A MODEST CHANCE THAT SURFACE BASED STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR WARM
   FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ERN MO INTO A PORTION OF CNTRL IL WHERE
   THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE AS CAPPED AS FARTHER W. IF ENOUGH
   BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING OCCURS TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED
   STORMS...STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS WOULD
   PROMOTE A FEW SUPERCELLS. THE EXTENT/DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT IS
   DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF MORNING AND ONGOING STORMS. GIVEN THE
   CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THIS THREAT ONLY A 15% PROBABILITY AREA WILL
   BE INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME.
   
   OTHERWISE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED ACROSS KS
   DURING THE DAY AS EML ADVECTS EWD...BUT SHOULD DESTABILIZE NWD
   THROUGH KS OVERNIGHT A SECONDARY BRANCH OF LLJ STRENGTHENS. ELEVATED
   STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SATURDAY
   NIGHT ACROSS CNTRL OR NRN KS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO NRN MO. ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   
   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE WITHIN UPSLOPE
   REGIME OVER ERN CO AS UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 F DEWPOINTS ADVECT WWD
   BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES NORTH OF SURFACE LOW OVER THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS. IF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING OCCURS STRONG /60+ KT/
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THIS AREA MIGHT NEED TO BE
   INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
   
   ...MN...
   
   COLD AIR ALOFT WITH -20F AT 500 MB AND DIABATIC WARMING WILL RESULT
   IN DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY...BUT MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   WILL LIKELY LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 500 J/KG. A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY
   DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT AS ANOTHER
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH UPPER LOW. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
   STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE EXPECTED
   MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT PRECLUDES MORE THAN 5% SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/27/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z