Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 030557
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1257 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2011
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
   TO LOWER MO VALLEY REGION...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DOMINANT UPPER-AIR FEATURE FOR MOST OF CONUS WILL REMAIN STG
   MID-UPPER ANTICYCLONE -- NOW CENTERED OVER AR AND FCST TO MEANDER
   ERRATICALLY OVER SAME AREA THROUGH DAY-2.  MID-UPPER LOW -- NOW
   EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SWRN SK -- IS FCST TO EJECT
   NEWD AND EVOLVE INTO OPEN-WAVE/POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EARLY DAY-1.
    TROUGH WILL REACH NRN MN AND NWRN SD BY 4/12Z...CONTINUING TO
   WEAKEN THROUGH PERIOD AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS LS AND NRN ONT.
   
   ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS WI AND LOWER MI
   DURING DAY...REACHING PORTIONS OH...INDIANA...IL...MO...KS AND ERN
   CO BY 5/00Z.  BY 5/00Z...SEGMENT OF FRONT SHOULD BECOME
   QUASISTATIONARY FROM CENTRAL IL/ERN MO AREA WWD TO ERN CO.
   
   ...OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TO LOWER MO VALLEY REGION...
   WHILE CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY STG IN THIS OVERALL SCENARIO FOR
   MID-UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONTAL ZONE...SOME UNCERTAINTY IS EVIDENT
   AMONG OPERATIONAL PROGS AND SREF MEMBERS REGARDING LATITUDINAL
   LEEWAY FOR FRONTAL POSITION DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING DAY-2. 
   EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS PORTIONS INDIANA/IL/MO/KS MAY BE
   MODULATED BY OUTFLOW FROM MORNING ACTIVITY.
   
   COMPLEX OF TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD OVER UPPER
   GREAT LAKES REGION/LOWER MI...MOVING SEWD PAST DEAMPLIFYING UPPER
   RIDGE TOWARD LE/OH.  ANOTHER MCS IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS CORN BELT
   BETWEEN ERN NEB AND NRN IL...REF DAY-1 OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS ON HOW
   THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP AND EVOLVE BEFORE 04/12Z.  THIS COMPLEX OR
   ITS REMNANTS MAY MOVE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS WI/IL/LM/INDIANA DURING
   DAY AS WELL.  STRENGTHENING OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT RELATED TO
   EITHER OF THESE CONVECTIVE REGIMES IS POSSIBLE INVOF LOW-LEVEL
   FRONTAL ZONE DURING LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...IN ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WINDS BUT
   FAVORABLE SPEED/BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SVR.
   
   RELATIVE WEIGHTS OF HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON
   CONVECTIVE MODE...WITH AFTERNOON FCST SOUNDINGS OVER INDIANA/IL
   SUPPORTING POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT-SVR THREAT FOR EITHER ONE ATTM. 
   ACTUAL WIND RISK MAY DEPEND ON ABILITY OF STORM-SCALE COLD POOLS TO
   ACCRETE AND ORGANIZE UPSCALE.  GREATEST RELATIVE TOTAL SVR THREAT
   APPEARS TO BE FROM CENTRAL IL TO WRN/CENTRAL OH NEAR AND S OF
   FRONT...WHERE GREATEST PRE-STORM HEATING/MOISTURE IS LIKELY.
   
   ...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
   SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS TSTMS IN CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP ATOP VERY STRONGLY HEATED AND WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY
   LAYER...WITH MESOSCALE TO LOCAL AUGMENTATION BY SEA BREEZE AND
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR BUT
   STG INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE POTENTIALLY REACHING 4000 J/KG IN SOME
   LOCALES.  ONE OR MORE MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS MAY AGGREGATE DURING
   AFTERNOON AND MOVE WWD..WITH SOME FORWARD-PROPAGATIONAL COLD-POOL
   POTENTIAL AND RELATED RISK OF STG-SVR GUSTS.  EARLY-STAGE MULTICELLS
   ALSO MAY POSE HAIL THREAT.
   
   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/FOOTHILLS...
   THIS REGION WILL BE UNDER UPPER RIDGING FOR MUCH OF DAY...AND
   MID-UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE VERY
   LIMITED AT MOST.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE
   POSSIBLE FROM THIS REGION SSWWD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SERN NM
   DURING AFTERNOON...AS STG DIABATIC HEATING WAKENS MLCINH.  OVER ERN
   CO...HEATING ON HIGHER TERRAIN...COLLOCATED WITH AT LEAST WEAK
   UPSLOPE SFC COMPONENT AND WRN LIMB OF FRONTAL ZONE...AND STG
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONDITIONAL SVR POTENTIAL.  A
   SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY FORM DURING AFTERNOON AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS THIS
   REGION.  SVR POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO MRGL/CONDITIONAL FOR
   CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 06/03/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z