Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 250538
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1238 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS...UPPER MS VALLEY...MID-MO VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...
   
   ...NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/MID-MO VALLEY...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES SUNDAY AS A
   MID-LEVEL JET IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS. THE NOSE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OUT ACROSS A
   STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
   SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
   FIRST INITIATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT FROM
   NRN WY ENEWD ACROSS NW SD INTO SRN ND. CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
   DEVELOP SWD AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE REGION.
   ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE EXACT TRACK OF AN MCS...THE
   ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE THE MOST REASONABLE FORECAST TAKING THE MEAN
   TRACK BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A CLUSTER OF
   INTENSE STORMS DEVELOPING AROUND RAPID CITY AT 21Z WITH THE CLUSTER
   MOVING ESEWD ACROSS SRN SD AND NRN NEB BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
   OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE NEWD ACROSS NERN SD INTO WRN MN
   ALONG A SFC TROUGH AND AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY.
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN SRN SD AND NRN NEB AT 00Z TO 03Z SHOW AN
   IMPRESSIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG AND
   0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 60 TO 70 KT RANGE. THIS SHOULD FAVOR
   DISCRETE CONVECTION AND SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
   THE CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE LOCATED ON THE NERN EDGE OF A
   PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAKING LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH
   SUPERCELLS. THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED VERY
   LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES
   DURING THE EARLY EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED THE 30 PERCENT SEVERE
   PROBABILITY AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HATCHED AREA ACROSS SCNTRL SD AND
   NRN NEB. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF THE MCS CAN
   ORGANIZE INTO A LINE OR IF THE DISCRETE CELLS CAN TRANSITION INTO
   SHORT-BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXTEND AS FAR
   EWD AS OMAHA OR DES MOINES DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DEPENDING
   UPON THE SPEED OF THE MCS.
   
   ...MID-MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY...
   A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
   UPPER MIDWEST AND OZARKS SUNDAY WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL JET
   POSITIONED BENEATH THE RIDGE. A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
   MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET
   ACROSS MO AND IL. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO MOVE
   EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY WHERE THE STORMS MAY BECOME
   INCREASINGLY SFC-BASED AS TEMPS WARM. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WIND
   DAMAGE THREAT TO EITHER BE MAINTAINED OR INCREASE AS AN MCS TRACKS
   EWD ACROSS IND...KY AND NRN TN AROUND MIDDAY. MOST OF THE MODEL
   FORECASTS EVENTUALLY WEAKEN THE MCS IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
   APPALACHIAN MTNS WHERE INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG
   AS AREAS TO THE WEST.
   
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO INITIATE FURTHER WEST ACROSS SE
   NEB...FAR NE KS AND NRN MO DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THREAT
   SHOULD EXIST ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT ARE NOT IMPACTED BY COOL
   OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORNING MCS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/25/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z