Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 251730
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS REGION SEWD
   INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEY AREA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES SHIFTING ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE
   NERN U.S. THIS PERIOD...THE WRN U.S. TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
   WEAKEN/EJECT EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS -- ATOP THE PERSISTENT SRN U.S.
   RIDGE.  AS ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT SPREADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS
   WITHIN THE TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT...A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS
   PROGGED TO REMAIN ACROSS KS/MO AND EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. 
   PRIMARY CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN TO THE COOL
   SIDE OF THIS PRIMARY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHILE FARTHER E
   EXPECT CLUSTERS OF SEWD/SWD-MOVING STORMS TO OCCUR THROUGH THE
   PERIOD.
   
   ...NRN PLAINS SEWD INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEY AREA...
   COMPLEX SCENARIO IS APPARENT FOR DAY 2...WITH LACK OF CONFIDENCE
   WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND LOCATION OF EVENTUAL CORRIDORS OF HIGHER
   SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRENCE.  
   
   MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN MCS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE
   START OF THE PERIOD SOMEWHERE INVOF THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY
   REGION...WITH THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING HIGH-RES WRF RUN DEPICTING
   THIS SYSTEM AS FAR SW AS NRN AR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD DUE TO
   SWD PROPAGATION OF THE COLD POOL.  WHILE THIS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
   OF A SWWD POSITION...THIS MCS -- WHEREVER IT RESIDES -- WILL HAVE AN
   EFFECT ON SUBSEQUENT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE REINITIATION/
   REINTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION.  ATTM...EXPECT
   REDEVELOPMENT/REINTENSIFICATION OF STORMS TO OCCUR -- LIKELY INVOF
   PRIOR CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES...AND WITH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
   SHEAR ANTICIPATED...A PRIMARILY MULTICELL HAIL/WIND THREAT SHOULD
   ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.
   
   FARTHER NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS/NEB REGION...STORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST
   TO DEVELOP...NEAR AND N OF A WARM FRONT PROGGED TO RESIDE INVOF THE
   KS/NEB BORDER...AHEAD OF THE EMERGING WRN U.S. TROUGH.  DEVELOPING
   STORMS WILL MOVE SEWD -- AND COULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT AS
   LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 
   HOWEVER...LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CORRIDOR
   REMAINS UNCERTAIN -- AS MENTIONED EARLIER -- AND THEREFORE WILL OPT
   TO CARRY ONLY A LARGE 15%/SLIGHT RISK AREA THIS FORECAST.  HAVING
   SAID THAT...EVOLVING ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY SUPPORTIVE
   OF GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL -- WHICH WILL LIKELY REQUIRE PROBABILITY
   UPGRADE IN LATER FORECASTS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 06/25/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z